Rain And Storms On The Way
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SPRINKLES TODAY: A few sprinkles have been reported across Alabama today… even some sleet at times over the eastern counties. The ice pellets were falling with surface temperatures in the low 50s; the sleet formation was due to the evaporative cooling process as precipitation fell through the very dry low levels of the atmosphere. The weather is actually quite mild this afternoon, with temperatures mostly in the 61-66 degree range at 3:00.
STRONG STORMS TOMORROW? Tomorrow promises to be even warmer, with a high in the upper 60s. This, along with dew points in the 50s, will make for a slightly unable atmosphere, and with the approach of a strong upper system, showers and storms will be likely statewide tomorrow. SPC has low end 5 percent probabilities of severe weather in place; it is another classic high shear low CAPE event that we see so often here during the cold weather season.
The 12Z NAM keeps surface based CAPE values here under 600 j/kg, with good agreement from the RPM. This is marginal for severe weather, but the 12Z runs are a little more aggressive with shear values. And, we must note the NAM is showing a STP (significant tornado parameter) of 2 just south of the I-59 corridor tomorrow evening, which is actually pretty significant.
So, we won’t hit the severe weather chances hard with the low instability, but with the forecast STP values we will have to keep a close eye on radar the low topped storms that try and rotate. Again I remind you we had an EF-2 tornado in western North Carolina last week with a similar setup.
COLD, THEN WARM: Wednesday will be sharply colder with a high only in the upper 40s with the sky becoming mostly sunny. By early Thursday most places will start the day in the 20s. But, we warm up quickly, with highs in the 50s. Friday will be warmer with low 60s likely. Clouds will return during the day, and a shower is out out of the question Friday afternoon as low level moisture increases.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: We will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday. The GFS continue to suggest the bulk of the rain will be over by midday Saturday, but the ECMWF is slower and keeps rain going through Saturday afternoon, and we will lean in that direction in our forecast. The weather will stay mild with a high well up in the 60s, possibly nearing 70 Saturday afternoon.
The latest GFS and ECMWF suggest Sunday will be very mild, but mostly cloudy with some risk of scattered showers as a good supply of low level moisture remains pooled across the Deep South. The high Sunday will be a spring-like 70 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Monday stays warm; then we will deal with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday as the next weather system passes through the state. Again, we will need to monitor that one for severe weather potential since CAPE values (instability) will be higher than recent events. We cool down a bit by the middle of the week, but nothing really significant for mid-winter.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any long lasting cold snap, or encounters with snow or ice through early February for Alabama and the Deep South as the overall pattern remains unchanged. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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