Wet Weather Returns To Alabama

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MORE WEATHER CHANGES: The weather in Alabama changes frequently in January, and it will be a roller coaster ride again this week. Clouds have returned to our state overnight, and we actually see several showers on radar. But, the air near the ground is very dry, and not much of this rain is reaching the ground at this point. Still, we will mention a chance of developing showers today and tonight statewide. The warming trend will continue despite the clouds; most places will see a high in row low 60s today with a good southerly breeze.

TOMORROW: Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow. SPC has low end (5 percent) severe weather possibilities defined across the state, as once again we have a low CAPE moderate shear type event, which is common for the cold weather season here. The NAM brings the surface based CAPE up to 620 j/kg tomorrow afternoon with a temperature in the upper 60s and a dew point in the low 50s. You really need those dew points to rise into the 60s for big severe weather threat, but we must not forget an EF-2 tornado touched down in in western North Carolina last week with a similar setup.

So, for now, we won’t mention any really significant risk of severe weather tomorrow, but as always we need to keep a close eye on radar for trends. The NAM is printing 0.45″ of rain for Birmingham; the GFS is similar at 0.42″. So…. for now… we will forecast about 1/2 inch of rain. A few spots could see more if stronger storms can develop.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: We have brief cool-down Wednesday. The sky becomes mostly sunny, with the high dropping into the upper 40s with a chilly northwest wind. And, by early Thursday, we will begin the day with a low in the 20s. But, as has been the case much of this season, the cold weather won’t last long. We warm up nicely Thursday afternoon with a high in the 50s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The warm-up continues Friday with a high in the 60s. Clouds will increase during the day, and we will bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night, possibly into Saturday as we kick off the weekend. We note the 06Z GFS gets the rain out of here quickly by daybreak Saturday, but on the other hand, the ECMWF keeps the chance of rain going during the day Saturday. The Euro has been reliable this season, we will keep the chance of rain going into Saturday in our forecast. One way or another, Saturday promises to be very mild with a high near 70 degrees.

Sunday looks like a spring-like day. A good supply of sunshine with a high in the low 70s. That will be one to enjoy.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Yet another weather system will bring a round of showers and storms to Alabama by Monday night and Tuesday of next week; we will need to monitor that one for severe weather potential in coming days since there should be some higher instability to work with. And, still no signs of any long lasting cold snaps into early February as the GFS ensemble NAO outlook keeps it positive (North Atlantic Oscillation). See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

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Tags: showers

Category: Alabama's Weather