Wet and Mild for a Couple of Days

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With a stationary front lying across the Tennessee River Valley, it appears that we will be staying mild and wet for the next couple of days until we can kick all of these weather systems out of here. But when that happens, look for another substantial chill down.

For now through early Tuesday, the presence of the front will be the focus for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as we say yesterday. Even got a bit of hail out of a couple of the thunderstorms that occurred across northern Alabama. Rainfall will remain spotty due to the nature of showers. The greatest shower threat will be between about Hoover and Tennessee/Alabama line, or closest to the front. But one of the forecast challenges is monitoring the meandering of the front. This will change the location of the rain if it moves either north or south. This will also have a high impact on temperatures since highs will generally be in the 60s south of the front but upper 50s north of the front.

The stationary front remains in our area through Tuesday when changes begin to occur. The upper closed low comes out of the Southwest US crossing Texas and generating a surface low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. The surface low should move up into the Mid-South area in the vicinity of Memphis by Tuesday evening. This will bring some serious rain to Mississippi and Alabama as a cold front marches eastward. There continues to be a concern for severe weather potential. As I mentioned yesterday, the shear parameters seem to be good, but we’re missing good instability. That remains the case right now, too. So this will continue to be a watch and see as we get closer to the event. The GFS suggests some marginal CAPE right now, but it is just that, marginal. It appears likely that most of the instability will remain offshore of the Central Gulf Coast.

The closed low moves through on Wednesday, but we may not be completely through with the precipitation. And both the ECMWF and the GFS show the cold air arriving finally late Thursday and Friday. Some lingering moisture on Thursday could produce clouds and some light drizzle. Friday the cold air plunges into the Southeast in response to the digging of a big long wave trough over the eastern half of the country. We stay cold Saturday, but in typical fashion, the cold does not stick around long with both models showing a warm up beginning on Sunday.

The overall pattern well out into voodoo country remains active with another round of wet weather on the 17th and another potential for Arctic cold to reach us again on the 20th. So the roller coaster of winter keeps chugging along.

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I enjoyed having a guest for the evening newscast last night. Kevin Mahon and his dad came by since Kevin is very interested in becoming a meteorologists. We had a great time and they endured the whole newscast. It’s always a wonderful opportunity to talk with your folks about their interests. If you are local to us, be sure to catch the news on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm this evening. I hope you have a wonderful day whatever your plans may be. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather