Severe Storms Possible Today
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TORNADO WATCH TO THE WEST: SPC continues a tornado watch for much of Central and South Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana until 1:00 this afternoon, and they have much of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” for severe weather later today.
ON THE MAPS: A surface front bisects Alabama this morning, with nearly a 20 degree swing on either side of the boundary. We see upper 40s to the north for places like Cullman, and upper 60s near Montgomery. The front should move very slowly north today, and it will mark the northern edge of the severe weather threat. No doubt the severe weather threat will be mainly south of U.S. 278 today… the Tennessee Valley will remain cool and stable.
TIMING: We note a strong storm moving into Marion and Franklin Counties of Northwest Alabama early this morning as I write this, but that is elevated with no surface based instability. The primary severe weather risk for Alabama will come from about 10:00 this morning until 6:00 this evening.
PLACEMENT: The best combination of instability and shear will be near U.S. 80… Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika… but severe storms are certainly possible as far north as I-20… Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston. North of Birmingham the severe weather threat is smaller with little instability there.
THREATS: The stronger storms today will could produce hail and strong winds, and forecast low level helicity values and LCL heights certainly bring up the risk of a few isolated tornadoes as well. This is not a “major threat”, but a few tornado warnings are possible later today. We will also have to watch for bowing storm segments on radar today and potential for damaging winds; maybe even a derecho type situation. Rain amounts around one inch are likely.
Everybody needs to be in a position to hear severe weather watches and warnings later today if they are needed. Storms will move out of the state tonight, and tomorrow will be dry and cooler with a few intervals of sunshine and a high in the upper 50s.
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: The final wave in the series will bring more rain to Alabama over the weekend; looks like the best chance will come Saturday night into Sunday morning. The air will be cool and stable, with daytime highs in the 50s, so no severe weather issues. Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch look likely over the weekend. Most kids will be hearing the pitter patter of raindrops on the roof this year when they are opening the presents.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks very benign. Mostly dry, highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s, exactly where we should be this time of the year.
INTO THE NEW YEAR: Still no sign of any major invasions of Arctic air into Alabama at least through the first week of 2012. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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Stay tuned to the blog for running updates on the Alabama weather situation today….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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