One More Dry Day
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BEAUTIFUL SKY: Be sure and scroll down for images of the Alabama sky yesterday…. an afternoon hole punch cloud over West Alabama, and a stunning sunset. Thanks to everybody for taking the time to send those pictures to us.
NICE WARM-UP: A number of Alabama communities are below freezing this morning, but we warm nicely today with a high in the low 60s along with a partly sunny sky. Clouds will thicken tonight ahead of the next weather system to the west, that is producing blizzard conditions today from New Mexico to Kansas.
STRONG STORMS? Showers should develop during the day tomorrow, with rain and thunderstorms becoming rather widespread tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. SPC has the northwest part of Alabama in a “slight risk” of severe weather for tomorrow night, followed by low end 5 percent severe weather probabilities for Central and East Alabama during the day Wednesday. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed look at the severe weather issue… bottom line is that there will be a decent amount of instability for December (around 500 j/kg, according to the RPM), along with decent low level helicity values (150-250 m2/s2 based on the RPM).
It is not a classic setup for a big severe weather problem, but no doubt we could see a few storms with strong winds, and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out with the projected shear values. The main window for strong to severe storms across North-Central Alabama will come from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 12:00 noon Wednesday. Rain amounts of 1/2 to one inch are likely.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: While the rain tapers off for North Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening, showers will continue across South Alabama as a surface front stalls nearby as it becomes parallel to the upper air flow. That front will lift northward Thursday as another wave approaches from the west, and we will deal with more rain at times Thursday and Thursday night. There is hardly any instability this time, and while there could be some thunder we don’t expect any severe weather issues. Friday will be mostly cloudy, and I guess a stray shower is possible, but most of the day should be dry. The weather stays mild with a high in the mid 60s.
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: No doubt this is a challenging pattern for a really good forecast, especially concerning the timing of rain events. But, at this point we will forecast dry and cool weather on Saturday with a high in the upper 50s along with a partly sunny sky.
Model madness rules for Christmas Day; the ECMWF, which has performed very well this season, shows a cold and dry day Sunday with a high in the 40s. But, the GFS and the GEMS suggest the day will be cloudy with rain moving into Alabama by afternoon with another wave to the west. The wetter solution is supported by ensemble runs, and is followed for this forecast. So, for now, Christmas Day looks cloudy and cool with a chance of rain by afternoon into the nighttime hours. The high would be around 50 degrees if this scenario is right.
Monday looks colder with rain diminishing. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for detailed break out of day to day weather as we head toward Christmas. Expect some forecast changes in coming days with such a complex situation.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of the NAO flipping negative, which means temperatures will be generally above average into the New Year. We can have cold snaps with a positive NAO, but they are usually not long lasting or severe.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST.
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I will be dropping by Glen Iris Baptist Church today for my annual visit to the Harry Owens show on their radio station, WGIB… Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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