Another Sunny Day

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Another great day in store for Central Alabama with a generous amount of sunshine and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s. Monday will also be dry, but as the surface high moves off to the east, we’ll see a moderation in temperatures along with a fairly quick return of moisture. I expect to see afternoon highs reaching the lower 60s along with increasing clouds.

The system over the Southwest US kicks out a substantial closed low that will dissipate as it moves off toward the northeast but it will bring a surface low into Arkansas on Tuesday with a cold front generally along the lower Mississippi River. The European and GFS models are in excellent agreement on the position and timing of the system. There may be two rounds of rain possible on Tuesday with some light rain as the warm front lifts northward while the significant rain holds off until afternoon and evening with the cold front. There is still some potential for a severe weather threat. But as I noted yesterday, there appears to be enough shear, but the instability/thermodynamics are somewhat marginal. So we’ll continue to keep an eye on how this evolves as we get closer to the event.

We should see improving weather on Wednesday, but it looks like the improvement will be short lived. Another short wave will come out of the Southwest US on Thursday and with the wet southwesterly flow, we could see some rain again Thursday. In fact with the southwesterly flow in place, so we’ve got the moisture, we could see some rain chances right through to Christmas Day. And the latest GFS and European runs are in agreement for a wet Christmas Day in Central Alabama.

Rainfall amounts for the main event Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch range with as much as 2.5 inches over eastern sections of Alabama.

Looking ahead into voodoo country, another rain event is possible around the 27th, but then it looks like we turn dry for the rest of the month and the first part of January as we head into 2012. The weather pattern suggests an absence of extremes though the long wave trough over the eastern US would keep us cool but not extremely cold.

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Thanks for staying tuned. James Spann will be back with the next video first thing Monday morning. I hope you enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather