Dry Through Saturday; 80s Return By Friday

COOLER SPRING DAY: Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 70s across Alabama this afternoon with a sunny sky. Tonight will be clear and cool with a low in the 40s.

REST OF THE WEEK: Look for sunny days and fair nights through Friday with a warming trend. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s tomorrow, close to 80 Thursday, and in the low to mid 80s Friday.

EASTER WEEKEND: Saturday will be another warm, dry day with a good supply of sunshine along with a high in the 80s. Some uncertainty is creeping into the forecast concerning the weather on Easter Sunday; the American global model (the GFS) is now much faster, showing the return of showers and storms. However, the reliable European global model shows rain holding off until Sunday night and Monday, and we will lean in that direction in the forecast.

We note SPC has defined a risk of severe storms west of Alabama Sunday, including Arkansas and some of the adjacent states.

NEXT WEEK: A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back to Alabama Monday. For now the risk of severe storms looks fairly low with the main dynamic support passing well to the north, but we will watch model trends closely in coming days. The reliable European model suggests the front will hang up and stall across the Deep South, which could keep the chance of rain in place through Wednesday. But, the American GFS model shows dry air returning Tuesday, so forecast confidence remains low. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 2011: The “forgotten” tornado outbreak of April 15, 2011. A total of 45 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, killing seven people.

One of the large EF-3 tornadoes to strike Central Alabama on the day created a swath of damage from northeastern Greene County, just southeast of the community of Ralph, to just south of Veterans Memorial Parkway just east of Tuscaloos in south-central Tuscaloosa County. Winds with this monster were estimated at 140 MPH, mainly uprooting and snapping trees. A few homes and businesses received damage as the twister moved north of Shelton State Community College and crossed Alabama Highway 69 near Taylorville, and crossing I-20/59 near McFarland Blvd.

Another large EF-3 tornado struck the Myrtlewood-Pinhook communities in Marengo County with estimated winds of 150 mph. Several dozen single-family and mobile homes were destroyed or severely damaged. One person was killed when his mobile home was tossed several hundred feet across Alabama Highway 69. Two more people were injured as their mobile homes were rolled and tossed. Two more people were injured as the roof and several walls of their home were destroyed.

Another EF-3 tornado hit Central Alabama, this time it was in the Boones Chapel community in northern Autauga County. This twister was the third one to affect the same general area for the day, but this one was a killer. Three people were killed and four were seriously injured as the tornado destroyed the manufactured home they were in. In all, at least 50 homes and one business was either destroyed or significantly damaged.

The event was “forgotten” by many due to what would happen 12 days later, on April 27, 2011, when a generational tornado outbreak would kill 252 people in our state.

Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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