Life is Like a Box of Chocolates: Winter Storms are a Little Like that as Well

How much snow will you get? That’s the question on most everyone’s mind this afternoon as another winter storm takes a swipe at Alabama and the South.

In the famous words of Alabama’s resident poet Forrest Gump, “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.” In our winter weather case, we have a list of the different kinds of chocolate in our box, we just don’t know which one is which until the radar lights up.

Everyone likes a specific forecast. Is is going to snow? Yes or no?

A deterministic forecast provides a single, specific prediction of future weather conditions, such as “3 inches of snow expected tomorrow.” In contrast, a probabilistic forecast expresses the likelihood of different outcomes, such as “a 60% chance of receiving 3 inches of snow,” helping convey uncertainty and possible scenarios.

Unfortunately, we don’t yet have the sklll to give everyone a perfect forecast for what is going to happen at this address. But here is some information ot help you sort through the possibilities and figure out how to prepare for your family or your organization.

This is what the GFS model deterministic output says this morning…

It is the most aggressive and makes snow fans very happy in many places…

While the European model is not quite as generous with the amounts…

Snow fans, look away…the HRRR is even less bullish on snowfall amounts…

But invariably there will be surprises…as with any winter storm. And there will be disappointments and delights.

Here is the official NWS forecast:

Cue the whomp whomp sound for some folks who may be getting their hopes up with the GFS output.

The new trend is meteorology is to look at probabilities of an event happening. In this case, 1″ of snow. Here is what the GFS ensembles say:

This captures the essence of what we’re saying. If you live in Memphis or Nashville, or Corinth, MS, or even Florence, Alabama, there is a higher than 90% chance that you will see 1″ or snow or more. Huntsville, you’ve got a 705 chance. Cullman a 60% chance. Gadsden, a 30-50% chance. Jasper a 20% chance. Birmingham, 0%. Cue that whomp whomp sound again.

But this is model data. We have to wait and see what the atmosphere gives us. And there are usually surprises.

Of course, I am mainly speaking to the snow fans (of which I am one), but the business owners, school leaders, and government officials look at this from the opposite side of the table. The forecast of snow means potential disruptions and preparations that could turn out to be needless.

Go interpret the data for your situation and plan accordingly.

We will be with you all night watching as those snow reports (or lack thereof) come in.

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