Midday Nowcast: Saturday Soaker; Dangerously Cold Arctic Air For Alabama Next Week

Quiet weather continues today through Friday across Alabama. We are seeing more sun than clouds today for the northern half of the state, but the southern half of the state is seeing more clouds than sun. We are also seeing a slight warming trend the rest of this week. Highs today are in the low 50s, while mid and upper 50s are expected tomorrow and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Clouds will increase Friday ahead of our next storm system.

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For January 15th, the average high for Birmingham is 54° and the average low is 35°. The record high is 78° set in 1947, while the record low is 18° set in 1927. We average 0.16” of precipitation on this date and the record value is 2.78” set in 1954.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain to the state Saturday; potential rainfall will be in the 1-2” range statewide. Some thunder is possible, but severe storms are not expected. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, so there is also no threat of frozen precipitation.

The rain ends late Saturday night, and much colder air will blow into the state Sunday. Sunday will be very cold with highs holding in the 30s all day across the northern half of the state, add in an icy north wind, and wind chills will likely be in the 20s all day. It will be a mainly cloudy day, and there will be snow flurries flying around in the sky as the moisture departs.

INTO THE DEEP FREEZE: The coldest air so far this winter moves into the Deep South late Sunday and will linger into much of next week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will likely remain below freezing for the northern half of the state. Lows in the teens are likely as well.

For Deep South winter precipitation events, you need two main ingredients: cold air and moisture. We had that last week and there had a winter storm. We will have the cold air for sure, now what about the moisture? We are watching the long range global models as they continue to show a low pressure developing in the Gulf, spreading moisture north over the cold air. The global models and their ensembles continue to show increasing potential for another winter storm across the southern U.S. in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. However, it is still way too early to know precipitation type and placement, accumulation potential, and travel and societal impacts, but know we are watching the situation from model run to model run. Like last week’s event, all the players will be on the field for a potential winter storm, but when and where it will happens, is not yet known.

We will begin to have some clarity by Friday, and we can get specific concerning potential impact around Sunday. Winter storm or not, next week is going to be very cold, and now is the time to prepare for 4-5 days of frigid weather and for now, the cold weather is the greatest concern.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 113.4F at Windorah Airport, Australia. The lowest observation was -61.1F at Verhojansk, Russia.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 76F at Hollywood, FL. The lowest observation was -27F at Gunnison, CO.

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