Birmingham Bowl Weather Update, And a Closer Look at Saturdays Severe WX Risk

As of 2:04pm CT, numerous showers and some downpours continue to occur over central Alabama. The amount of thunderstorms has been very minimal, with most of the lightning confined to SW Alabama. That being said, we wont rule out an occasional lightning strike in the Birmingham Metro this afternoon. While it wont rain all afternoon, the Birmingham Bowl is likely to be wet at times, so be sure to bring your rain gear if attending. We will watch the storms over eastern MS for some stronger winds and lightning as they move into western AL. Showers and any embedded thunderstorms should wind down late tonight.

Our focus then turns to a potentially active severe weather event incoming for Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 3/5 enhanced risk of severe weather along and west of a line from Reform to Akron to Demopolis. This is where a few strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out. For the Birmingham metro, much of central and northern Alabama, as well as places like Montgomery, Selma, and Jasper, a level 2/5 slight risk is in place. And a level 1/5 marginal risk is in place for the remainder of east Alabama.

Instability and wind shear parameters seem to favor an all hazards severe weather day, with potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail. The greatest potential will be over the western half of the state, with a lessening but not 0 risk east of I65.

For timing, the window will range from 3pm-1am for western AL, 4pm-2am for central AL, and 9pm-8am for eastern AL. It will not storm during the entire window, but this is the time that thunderstorms are most likely to occur.

Above is the HRRR model valid at 7pm on Saturday. You can see a band of strong to severe storms over the western portion of the state.

Above is the HRRR model valid at 1am, showing another round of strong to severe storms stretching through the central portion of the state. Both rounds will have the potential to be severe, but the first round should be a bit stronger as it will take away some of the instability from the 2nd round.

Be sure you have your severe weather safety plans in place, and know where you will go if severe weather warnings are issued for your area. Also be sure you have at least 3 ways to receive warnings. These may include a weather radio, WEA alerts, or broadcast media, but should NEVER rely on an outdoor siren. Severe weather is not unusual this time of year in Alabama, and we have had it many times in the past.

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