Midday Nowcast: Rain and Storms Today; Severe Weather Potential Saturday

RAIN AND STORMS AT TIMES: Rain and storms this morning are moving into a stable air mass, and there is little to no threat of severe weather today. However, we note, the SPC has defined a low end “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight over parts of Central and Southwest Alabama…heavier storms could produce gusty winds and some hail. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For December 27th, the average high for Birmingham is 55° and the average low is 37°. The record high is 77° set in 2015, while the record low is 10° set in 1925. We average 0.16” of precipitation on this date and the record value is 7.70” set in 1942.

STORMY SATURDAY: The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over Alabama increases tomorrow afternoon, night, and into the pre-dawn hours Sunday. The SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over a small part of West Alabama. There is a “slight risk” (level 2/5) over to I-65, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for the eastern counties.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail. The highest tornado threat is over the “enhanced risk” area across far West Alabama, but a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out over to I-65. The overall tornado threat for East Alabama is much lower. The greatest risk of severe storms tomorrow will be from 3PM Saturday through 3AM Sunday.

We note, morning rain and storms could prevent the air from becoming more unstable tomorrow afternoon and night, keeping the tornado threat and severe weather threat lower later tomorrow night into early Sunday. But, certainly no guarantee that happens and everyone needs to be weather aware.

Rainfall totals will be in the 2-3 inch range over North Alabama, with 1-2 inches for the southern counties.

Any lingering storms over East and Southeast Alabama will end early Sunday morning, and some clearing is possible by Sunday afternoon with peeks of sunshine. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

GOODBYE 2024, HELLO 2025: Monday will be dry, but some showers are expected Tuesday with a cold front. Highs these two days will be in the low to mid 60s. Much colder air arrives as the New Year starts and highs fall into the 40s by Thursday and Friday over the northern half of the state, with sub-freezing lows.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 113.2F at Winton Airport, Australia. The lowest observation was -57.6F at Delyankir, Russia.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 91F at Hidalgo, TX. The lowest observation was -12F at Berlin, NH.

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