Good News for Rain Fans, Not So Much for Snow Fans

MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK
Surface high pressure will dominate Alabama’s weather through Tuesday, ensuring mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Morning lows will start near 31 degrees, but afternoon highs will climb to a comfortable 59 degrees. Winds will be light, shifting to the east at 3-6 mph, making for a pleasant and calm Christmas Eve across the region.

CHRISTMAS DAY SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE
On Christmas Day, expect partly cloudy skies in the morning, gradually transitioning to overcast conditions during the afternoon as a deepening trough to the west triggers rain and thunderstorms over East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. While some storms in those areas could be strong, the associated band of showers will weaken as it approaches Alabama. Showers will move into western parts of the state during the evening, with rain becoming more scattered as it progresses eastward. Morning lows will start near 37 degrees, with afternoon highs reaching around 61 degrees. Rainfall amounts will be light, near 0.20 inches, and no severe weather is expected.

DRYING OUT THURSDAY
Thursday will begin with lingering cloud cover and a slight chance of an early morning shower as the Christmas disturbance dissipates. Skies will gradually clear through the day, with highs reaching 60 degrees. Morning lows will be mild for this time of year, hovering around 47 degrees. Easterly winds at 6-11 mph will help keep the day cool and pleasant despite some lingering moisture.

A WEAK SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
On Friday, a disturbance will rotate to the northwest of Alabama while high pressure continues to influence conditions from the east. Most of the state will remain dry during the day, though isolated showers are possible. Morning lows will start around 48 degrees, with highs again reaching near 61 degrees. By Friday night, rain chances will increase as a band of showers moves in, bringing totals of around 0.25 inches.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY
Saturday’s weather will turn more active as an approaching disturbance enhances lift across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day, with heavier rain and embedded storms likely overnight. Morning lows will be warm at 57 degrees, with afternoon highs climbing to 65 degrees. Rainfall totals could exceed 1 inch in some areas, and while widespread severe weather is not expected, a marginal risk for isolated strong storms remains possible. Breezy southeast to south-southwest winds at 12-18 mph will accompany this system.

SUNDAY: A QUICK CLEARING TREND
Sunday begins with lingering showers and some thunder in the morning, as rain tapers off by early afternoon. Morning lows will remain mild at 54 degrees, with highs reaching 63 degrees. By the afternoon, skies will turn partly cloudy, offering a break from the rainy conditions. Winds will shift to the west at 5-10 mph, with occasional gusts up to 18 mph.

A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY
Monday brings a pleasant and tranquil day as high pressure builds behind Sunday’s system. Expect a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs climbing to a mild 66 degrees after a cool morning low of 46 degrees. This respite will provide a welcome break from the active weather before the next system arrives.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEW YEAR’S WEEK
Another weakening disturbance is set to move through on New Year’s Eve, bringing a band of light showers and keeping temperatures mild with highs in the mid-60s. New Year’s Day will be damp, with a few leftover showers persisting. Beyond that, a series of quick-moving systems are expected to impact the region on January 2nd, 3rd, and 7th. While no cold air is in sight, and snow fans will be left disappointed, the active pattern suggests the wet weather may continue well into early January.

RAIN PROJECTIONS GROWING
The train of disturbances is helping to fatten rainfall projections over the next 16 days. Here is the total precipitation product off the 18z run of the GFS model from yesterday afternoon:

No complaints here, because as Real Tuesday Weld sings, I Love the Rain. And we need it with the lingering drought conditions.

BEACH FORECAST
The beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida will enjoy sunny and pleasant weather today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid-60s and light east winds around 10 mph. Rip current risks remain low, and surf heights will be around 1 foot, making it ideal for holiday beachgoers. Christmas Day will bring partly sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s and a chance of showers developing later in the day, accompanied by increasing surf heights of 1 to 2 feet. By midweek, rip current risks will rise to moderate and then high levels as surf builds to 3 to 5 feet heading into Friday, along with higher rain chances and breezier conditions. Water temperatures remain in the upper 50s, so while the surf may be a bit chilly for swimming, it’s a great time for a scenic walk along the shoreline.

NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Widespread wintry weather from the Great Lakes into the Northeast today. A passing disturbance will produce widespread snows from Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont through New York, with a mix of snow and freezing rain to the south through southern Pennsylvania into Virginia, D.C., Maryland, and West Virginia. Out West, a series of atmospheric rivers will bring beneficial rains, but some heavy snows, and mudslides as well from the Sierras of California today and tonight. Winter Storm Watches are in effect further north, from northern California through mountainous areas of Oregon and Washington. Snowfall amounts could reach 1-2 feet in the Cascades.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004
An arctic cold front brought an extraordinary weather event to Southeast Texas on Christmas Eve, as temperatures plunged below freezing and a deep layer of cold air allowed snow to fall and stick to the ground. This rare setup created a true white Christmas across the region, with snow even covering palm trees. Brownsville, Texas, received 1.5 inches of snow—the first measurable snowfall there in 105 years—while Houston experienced its first white Christmas ever. Corpus Christi saw 5.2 inches of snow, more than had fallen in all prior years combined, and New Orleans had its first white Christmas in 50 years. Snow fell across southern Texas and southwestern Louisiana in areas that hadn’t seen it in decades, highlighting the unusual depth of cold air that favored snow over the freezing rain or sleet typically seen during winter weather in the region.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS