Midday Nowcast: Rain and Storms Return Early Tomorrow; Coldest Air So Far this Season Arrives this Weekend

It is a dry and nice day of weather across Alabama as we are seeing a mix of sun and clouds and afternoon highs are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight, a strong cold front will bring rain and storms back to Alabama and a few strong storms are possible after midnight.

The SPC maintains a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of North/Central Alabama during the predawn hours tomorrow. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds and there is a non-zero threat of an isolated tornado.

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For November 27th, the average high for Birmingham is 61° and the average low is 40°. The record high is 81° set in 1990, while the record low is 18° set in 1903. We average 0.15” of precipitation on this date, and the record value is 4.41” set in 1983.

THANKSGIVING: The threat for a few strong storms will continue into the first half of the day tomorrow, as the SPC maintains the low end “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for the southern 2/3 of the state.

There will not be much instability available over North Alabama, which will keep the threat of severe storms low. For the southern counties, the air will be somewhat unstable, but wind fields are not especially strong and the main dynamics will be lifting well to the north of the state. Some of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail. The chance of a brief, isolated tornado is low, but not zero. Best chance of rain will come from about 3AM-10AM Thursday, and rain amounts will be likely less than 1/2 inch for most communities.

After the storms exit and the front sweeps through, temperatures will start to tumble tomorrow as a much drier and colder air mass blows into the state. We will start the day in the 60s, dropping into the 40s and 50s by the early afternoon, with a brisk north wind.

BLACK FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The coldest air so far this season settles into the Deep South for the weekend. The weather will be dry with sunny days and fair nights, but temperatures won’t get out of the 40s over the northern half of the state both days this weekend. For the southern counties of the state, expect 50s. A freeze is likely pretty much statewide by Saturday morning with many places in the 20s.

IRON BOWL: The weather will be cold and dry Saturday in Tuscaloosa for this year’s Iron Bowl (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny, and temperatures will drop from near 48° at kickoff to near 40° by the final whistle.

COLD START TO DECEMBER: A secondary surge of cold air arrives late Sunday, and for Monday and Tuesday most places will remain in the 40s for highs, while lows in the 20s are expected all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Colder spots across North Alabama are likely to reach the upper teens early Monday morning. For the second half of next week, highs begin to rise a bit, with 50s expected, but these temperatures remain below average for early December. The air will be dry and there is no risk of any precipitation for most of the week.

IN THE TROPICS: The Atlantic Basin is quiet, with no tropical development expected and we are likely done with tropical systems this year. Hurricane season ends this Sunday, November 30th.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 107.8F at Komatidraai, South Africa. The lowest observation was -69.2F at Summit, Greenland.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 96F at Ochopee, FL. The lowest observation was -6F at Havre City-County, MT.

Tags: ANC, cloudy, colder, featured, scattered storms, showers

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