Sunday Morning Briefing: Storms For Thanksgiving?

NO VIDEO THIS MORNING DUE TO TRAVEL

Our holiday week is starting off quietly with some chilly conditions, but we will deal with two shots of wet weather this week, including the chance of some stormy conditions on Thanksgiving.

A FROSTY START TO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY SUNSHINE
Sunday morning begins with patchy frost, especially in sheltered and low-lying areas, under a Frost Advisory until 8 AM. Temperatures will hover in the mid-30s at sunrise, so sensitive plants should be protected. Freeze warnings are in effect for northern sections of Central Alabama, including places like Hamilton, Fayette, Jasper, Gadsden, and Anniston. As the day progresses, sunshine will dominate, and a developing southerly flow will help temperatures warm into the mid-60s—a pleasant end to the weekend. Sunday night will bring mostly clear skies early, transitioning to partly cloudy conditions as lows settle into the upper 40s, much milder than the night before.

MONDAY: WARM WINDS USHER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEK
Monday will feel more like spring than late November, with highs climbing into the lower 70s under partly sunny skies. Southwesterly winds will pick up to 10-15 mph, marking the arrival of a stronger flow of warm air ahead of the next cold front. The evening will see increasing clouds, with showers likely developing after midnight. Rain chances rise to 70% overnight, with lows staying mild in the lower 50s. Monday offers a great opportunity for any last-minute outdoor preparations before the rain arrives late.

RAINY EARLY TUESDAY, THEN COOLER AND CLEARING
A weakening cold front will bring scattered showers to North and Central Alabama early Tuesday morning, primarily along and north of the I-20 corridor. Showers should diminish by mid-morning, leaving clearing skies by afternoon as cooler, drier air filters in. Highs will top out in the lower 60s, with a refreshing northwest breeze providing a crisp autumn feel. Tuesday night will turn chilly, with clear skies and lows dropping into the upper 30s. This marks the first of two systems impacting the region this week.

WEDNESDAY: A QUIET DAY BEFORE HOLIDAY SHOWERS RETURN
Wednesday will be a tranquil and pleasant day, with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the mid-60s. As families hit the road for Thanksgiving, the weather will cooperate for daytime travel. However, clouds will begin to increase Wednesday night, with a 50% chance of showers developing after midnight. Lows will remain steady in the lower 50s, setting the stage for an unsettled holiday.

Parameters just don’t support severe weather at this time for Central Alabama on Thursday, but we will be monitoring

THANKSGIVING: WET, STORMY, AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
Rain and embedded thunderstorms will dominate Thanksgiving Day as a developing storm system moves across the Southeast. Highs will reach the lower 60s, but widespread rainfall could disrupt outdoor plans and travel. With a warm sector possibly developing in the southern half of Central Alabama, the potential for strong to severe storms exists, particularly Thursday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and heavy downpours may accompany the storms, so stay weather-aware. The rain will taper off overnight, but soggy conditions will linger into Friday morning.

BLACK FRIDAY: SHARPLY COOLER AND BREEZY
Behind the Thanksgiving system, much colder air will sweep into the region. Highs on Friday will struggle to rise above the lower 50s, and a brisk northwest wind will make it feel even cooler. While the skies will be partly sunny, shoppers heading out early for post-Thanksgiving sales or attending the Iron Bowl weekend festivities should bundle up. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 40s, signaling a chilly start to the holiday weekend.

IRON BOWL SATURDAY: CHILLY BUT DRY FOR THE SHOWDOWN
Saturday will continue the cool trend, with highs only in the lower 50s under partly sunny skies. Fans traveling to Tuscaloosa for the 2:30 PM kickoff between Alabama and Auburn should dress warmly, as it will feel brisk throughout the game. No rain is expected, making for excellent football weather despite the chill. Overnight lows will again drop into the lower 40s, with calm and dry conditions persisting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: PLAN AHEAD FOR THANKSGIVING
The week starts pleasantly, but two cold fronts will bring periods of rain and a dramatic cool-down. Thanksgiving will be the most impactful day, with rain and storms likely. Stay weather-aware, particularly if strong storms develop. By Black Friday and the weekend, sharply cooler but dry conditions will dominate. Adjust travel and holiday plans accordingly!

BEACHCAST: This week along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida will bring fantastic weather for late November, with warming temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and calm surf conditions for most of the period. Water temperatures are holding steady in the mid-60s, offering a refreshing dip for the brave, while surf heights remain low at 1 foot or less through midweek, keeping the rip current risk low. Sunday and Monday will be particularly pleasant, with highs reaching the lower to mid-70s and light southerly breezes creating ideal conditions for beach walks, fishing, or simply relaxing in the sun. A weak cold front on Tuesday may bring a slight chance of showers, but overall, conditions will remain dry and mild through Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day, another front will increase the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, so keep an eye on updated forecasts if you plan to be outdoors. The end of the week will turn cooler, with highs dropping to the mid-60s on Friday and lows dipping into the lower 40s at night, making for crisp mornings and evenings along the coast. While rip current risks are expected to stay low, always swim near lifeguard stations and be mindful of the tides, especially near jetties and piers where currents can become unpredictable.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

IN THE TROPICS: With just seven days left in the Atlantic hurricane season, it’s increasingly likely the season may have effectively ended, but a very low possibility of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean late next week is worth monitoring. A frontal boundary currently lingering over the western Caribbean is expected to lift out early next week, potentially leaving behind enough moisture and energy to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. While most models remain skeptical of tropical development, a few ensembles, including the European and GFS models, suggest a small chance that this energy could spin up into a tropical system by late in the week. If anything forms, it would likely track northeast toward Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas, bringing the potential for wet and unsettled weather. Even if tropical development doesn’t materialize, residents in these areas should prepare for a rainy week ahead, as we keep a close watch on this late-season setup.

NATIONALLY: Beneficial rains over the past 48 hours over the northeastern United States as 1-3” of rain fell. They needed it. The big story this week will be 1-5 feet of snow in the Sierras of California in a multiple day event. The heaviest snows will fall Monday and Tuesday. Winds will gust to 55 mph at times.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: The 12.47” of rain in one day at downtown Santa Rosa, California this week was a 1,000 year event!

WEATHERBRAINS: Friend of the Podcast, Dr. Kevin Kloesel will be the guest Monday night. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show and you can see the live show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 2001: 36 tornadoes struck Alabama, setting a record to that time for a single day during the state’s secondary tornado season—read more about this remarkable outbreak on the blog. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather