Tropical Depression 19 Update: More Strengthening Expected Today as System Nears Central America

Tropical Depression 19 has shifted course from what models originally predicted; the system is now on track to interact with Central America this week. Dangerous conditions, including mudslides, are expected in Honduras this week.

Here are the latest stats from the NHC:

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

Over the last 12 hours, this system has strengthened and improved its appearance on satellite. Due to some mid-level atmospheric features, the system is being pushed westward into the Central America region. After passing over Honduras, we expect this system to work its way into Belize, then slowly move into the Gulf. Torrential rainfall is expected to fall over Central America due to the slow speed of this system.

Once the system enters the Gulf, there is a lot of uncertainty. The strength of the system will ultimately depend on how much time it spends over land. There is a chance the system will not be able to strengthen at all over the Gulf, but there is also a chance that it could slightly intensify. As far as the track of the storm, models are all over the place. The general trend seems to suggest the storm making an eastward turn, and interacting with Florida before heading into the Atlantic. However, this is still very far out.

With the amount of uncertainty in this forecast, it is important to stay updated as things could change. We will continue to provide regular updates throughout the duration of this system.

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