Very High Probability of Tropical Development Soon. Here is the Latest

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded invest 99 L’s chance of development to 90% in both 48 hours as well as 7 days. It is very likely that a tropical depression will form later today or tomorrow. Models are quite bullish with this forthcoming storm, and some bring a major hurricane into the southern Gulf early next week. Given the low wind shear and very warm waters, this is plausible. While its too early to determine the exact intensity or track, its likely that eventual Sara remains away from the central Gulf Coast region. Once we get a low level center of circulation, model data will improve, and we can provide more details on track and intensity.

For now, residents of Florida should begin reviewing their hurricane plans. Elsewhere along the central Gulf Coast, continue to monitor this system, but the overall pattern strongly favors a track south of the central Gulf Coast.

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