Rain For Alabama Over The Next 36 Hours; Very Nice Weekend Ahead

RADAR CHECK: We have rain early this morning over parts of West Alabama… the rest of the state is mostly cloudy. We will have scattered light rain around today, followed by widespread rain statewide tonight and early tomorrow ahead of an upper trough/surface front. North Alabama has potential for around one inch of rain, with amounts of near 1/2 inch for the rest of the state over the next 36 hours.

We also note SPC maintains a low end, marginal risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for the southwest corner of the state late this afternoon and tonight. Some of the heavier storms there could produce strong, gusty winds. An isolated, brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

Rain will end tomorrow morning from northwest to southeast across Alabama as the front pushes through. Highs will be the 67-71 degree range for most places today and tomorrow.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Perfect weather for the Deep South with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. Colder spots across North Alabama could reach the mid to upper 30s early Saturday morning, otherwise lows will be in the 40s. The high Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s, then close to 70 Saturday, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A major pattern change is ahead for North America. The ridge that has been keeping the Deep South warm and mostly dry will be replaced by a deep, long wave upper trough. A surface front will bring showers Wednesday, followed by much colder air. Highs drop into the 50s Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 30s for much of North Alabama… See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms continue in associated with a broad area of low pressure (Invest 99L) over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of Haiti during the next day or so.

NHC gives the system a 90 percent chance of development, and most likely it becomes Tropical Storm Sara by the weekend. Most global models suggest Sara could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and most of the ensemble members bring it into South Florida somewhere south of Tampa Bay by the middle of next week.

Of course, until the system actually develops, gets a good core, and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunters, we won’t know the track or intensity. Confidence is high (based on the forecast upper air pattern) that this tropical system won’t impact the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach).

FOOTBALL WEATHER: A perfect night for high school playoff games Friday night. A clear sky with temperatures falling through the 50s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts LA-Monroe at Jordan-hare Stadium (11:45a CT kickoff)… expect a sun filled sky with temperatures rising from the mid 60s at kickoff, to near 70 by the final whistle.

Saturday, Alabama hosts Mercer (1p CT kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium/Saban Field. The sky will be sunny with temperatures in the 67-70 degree range.

UAB plays at Memphis Saturday night (7p CT kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from the low 60s at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

ON THIS DATE IN 1833: In 1833, observers were familiar with the Leonid meteor shower, but the event that year was very intense and leads to the first formulation of a theory on the origin of meteors. By some estimates, the 1833 Leonid meteor shower had 240,000 meteors in a nine-hour period.

Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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