Hurricane Rafael Update: System Now Over Southern Gulf

Hurricane Rafael is now over the Southern Gulf, and is expected to move westward over the next 48 hours. Right now, Rafael is at category 2 strength, with winds at 100 mph and a pressure of 971 mb.

Here are the latest stats from the NHC:

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…24.5N 85.2W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Rafael does not pose a risk to the continental US. The system has begun weakening, and we expect it to weaken even further over the next two days due to high shear, cooler ocean water, and dry air in the atmosphere. Plus, model data suggests that Rafael will veer to the west and stall over the southwestern Gulf, before fizzling out.

Behind Rafael, near the Leeward Islands, there is another area of interest marked by the NHC. There is only a 20% chance of development, but we will monitor this area. Disorganized showers are occurring here, and a low could form this weekend. We will keep you updated on this throughout the coming days.

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