Tropical Storm Rafael Update: Winds Up to 60MPH; System is Starting to Organize Itself

Tropical Storm Rafael spent last night and this morning organized itself. Winds have increased to 60mph and its pressure is now at 994mb.

Here are the latest stats from the NHC:

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

Discussion:

Right now, Rafael is moving around 13mph on a northwest track. The system is expected to pass by Jamacia in the coming hours, then pass over Cuba tomorrow night. Hurricane status is expected sometime tomorrow.

The system is currently battling a pocket of dry air, and its survival will depend on how it can handle this. The NHC notes that there are signs Rafael is still trying to develop a well-defined inner core regardless of the dry air getting brought into the storm.

Model data is still all over the place when it comes to Rafael’s track once it enters the Gulf. There appear to be two possibilities: a more northward track in which Rafael passes over MS and AL, or a more westward track in which the system passes over southern TX. Regardless, there is increasing confidence that Rafael will only be a tropical storm at this point.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the Florida Keys as strong winds from Rafael are expected to impact these areas beginning tomorrow.

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