Midday Nowcast: Some Showers Today; Rafael Continues to Intensify as it Heads Towards the Gulf

ELECTION DAY: Moisture levels are on the rise and an approaching front is allowing for some light scattered showers across Alabama. Any rain out there is light and spotty and many spots will remain dry. It is mainly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Weather will not be an issue for Election Day across the state, so please make sure you cast your vote today!!!

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For November 5th, the average high for Birmingham is 69° and the average low is 46°. The record high is 83° set in 2003, while the record low is 21° set in 1991. We average 0.13” of precipitation on this date, and the record value is 1.85” set in 1959.

ACROSS THE USA: A cold front will stall near the Mississippi River Valley today with excessive rainfall bringing areas of flooding over parts of the region. Gusty winds and dry conditions will drive critical to extremely critical fire weather over portions of central and southern California through Thursday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Florida Keys ahead of Tropical Cyclone Rafael.

REST OF WEEK: For tomorrow through Friday, scattered showers and some storms are possible each day, rain distribution will not be very even due to the scattered nature of the activity. The chance of any one spot will seeing rain will be in the 40-50 percent range. We will continue to see more clouds than sun and temperatures will remain above average with highs mainly in the upper 70s.

WEEKEND WEATHER: There remains a lot uncertainty due to model differences in handling Rafael down in the Gulf of Mexico. The American (GFS) model suggests Saturday will be a day with widespread, beneficial rain, as the system moves onshore along the Central Gulf Coast. The European (ECMWF) model shows little rain with the system much farther to the south and west much, much closer to Texas. For now we will continue to mention rain Saturday, with a trend toward drier weather Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s.

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL: Latest update from the NHC has the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

As the system moves past Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, we are expecting rapid weakening over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week due to cooler Gulf waters and some shear. It is forecast to be south of the Louisiana coast Friday night, but forecast uncertainty remains high due to the wide range of solutions with models due to differences in how they handle the upper air pattern.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 122.5F at Wenchi, Ghana. The lowest observation was -69.7F at Dome A, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 100F at Faith Ranch, TX. The lowest observation was 5F at Berthoud Pass, CO.

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