10PM CDT Tropical Storm Milton Update

The NHC has released their 10PM CDT advisory on Tropical Storm Milton, so let’s get into it.

Here are the updated stats from this advisory:

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI…1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Celestun to Cancun

Key Points:
1. Currently, Tropical Storm Milton is located in the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to track across the Gulf towards the Florida Coast. We are expecting a sizeable hurricane to emerge from this storm, and strength at landfall is expected to be in the category 2 through category 3 range.
2. Very high rainfall amounts are expected across the Florida Peninsula, with some areas potentially seeing 5-12 inches of rain.
3. We are still far out from landfall, and this storm developed very quickly. With this being said, it could take another day or so for the models to be able to truly refine the expected track and intensity of this storm as it progresses.

From the NHC: “There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.”

Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as tomorrow afternoon for parts of Florida.

CURRENT TRACK AND TIMING OF WINDS:

FLASH FLOODING:

Right now, there appears to be a slight risk of flash flooding across much of Central and Southern Florida. Here is a graphic outlining the areas of concern:

This storm is still early in its life cycle, and forecasts for tropical systems can change at any time. Be sure to stay updated on this storm, and have a hurricane plan in place if you live in Central or Southern Florida. We will continue to provide timely updates regarding this storm over the coming days.

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