A Look at Model Data for Tropical Storm Milton: Potential Track and Timing

Tropical Storm Milton has essentially gone from a disturbance area to a strong tropical storm in the span of just one day. It has already began rapid intensification, and is expected to strengthen to a category 2, or potentially category 3, hurricane in the coming days. The storm poses life-threatening risks to the Central Florida Gulf Coast, and impacts from this storm could be felt all across Central and Southern Florida.

The NHC has not yet began issuing intermediate advisories for this storm, so there is not an update from the NHC just yet. The next full advisory will come out at 10pm CDT. We will have a full breakdown of that update later tonight. For now, we want to share what the models are showing in regards to the track and timing of this storm. Earlier this week, models were all over the place when it came to this system. However, they are all starting to come into more agreeance.

The 18Z run of the GFS shows Milton as a hurricane with a pressure of 964 mb making landfall in the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. However, it shows the storm stalling off the coast of Florida for a few hours before making landfall. If this is the case, this could mean additional flooding and wind damage for areas near Tampa Bay, as well as much of central Florida. Here is an image from the 18Z GFS run, showing the storm late Wednesday night:

The 12Z EURO run tells a similar story to the GFS, with a few differences. The first being that it does not show the storm stalling for as long of a period as the GFS does. This would be a more ideal situation. It also does not have the storm being as strong at landfall, with a pressure of 977 mb. It is also a little faster than the GFS, placing landfall earlier in the evening on Wednesday. Here is an image from the 12Z EURO run showing landfall:

We will continue to monitor this situation, and will provide timely updates throughout the coming days. Expect the next update later tonight after the NHC issues their next advisory.

Category: ALL POSTS, Social Media, Tropical