Warm Weekend Ahead; Cooler Air Arrives Tuesday

RADAR CHECK: Light rain is fairly widespread across Southwest Alabama this afternoon; showers are widely spaced over the northern half of the state. Temperatures are in the 70s over South Alabama with clouds and rain… temperatures are in the low to mid 80s over the northern counties where the sun is out in spots. Showers will fade quickly after dark, and the sky becomes mostly fair tonight with a low in the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Highs remain in the 80s tomorrow and Sunday with a partly to mostly sunny sky both days. We will keep some risk of showers in the forecast for the far southern part of Alabama, but nothing too widespread or heavy.

COOL CHANGE: While Monday will be another warm day, a dry cold front will bring a cool change to the Deep South beginning Tuesday. Highs drop into the 70s over North/Central Alabama, with lows in the 50s. The high will be close to 80 over South Alabama, and the week will be dry with sunny days and fair nights. Quite frankly, we see no really significant rain event for Alabama for the next 10-15 days… this is common for October, which is the driest month of the year here based on climatology. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Hurricane Kirk remains is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 140 mph, but it is in the middle of the Atlantic far from land. It turns north, then northeast well east of the U.S. And, behind Kirk is Tropical Storm Leslie with winds of 65 mph. It should become a hurricane over the next 24 hours, but like Kirk it will remain far from land.

A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. The latest global models move the tropical low into South Florida Wednesday.

NHC gives the this feature a 50 percent chance of development. We see no risk of a tropical storm or hurricane for the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) for at least the next seven days.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Just a small risk of a shower during the first quarter, otherwise mostly fair and pleasant for the high school games tonight; temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Tomorrow UAB will host Tulane at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (12:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Auburn will be on the road at Georgia (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures in the low 80s through most of the game.

Alabama travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt (3:15p CT kickoff)… expect a sunny sky with temperatures falling from near 85 degrees at kickoff, to near 80 by the final whistle.

RACE WEEKEND: Just an outside risk of a shower today at Talladega, otherwise warm and dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1995: Opal made landfall at Pensacola Beach as a Category 3 hurricane with top sustained winds of 115 mph. Opal at that time was the first major hurricane to strike the Florida Panhandle since Eloise in 1975.

Opal’s legacy will always be the devastating storm surge that occurred across the coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle. Storm surge of 10-15 feet was recorded from Navarre Beach east to Destin with 6-8 feet observed in the inland bays from Pensacola to Choctawhatchee Bay. Opal destroyed most of the homes that were facing the Gulf of Mexico from Navarre Beach to east of Destin.

Opal was a high impact event for most all of inland Alabama. Rainfall measured at the Birmingham Airport reached 6.94 Inches for the day, with major flooding in parts of the city. There were two storm related deaths in Gadsden, in Etowah County, when high wind toppled a massive oak tree onto their mobile home.

Look for my next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. Monday… enjoy the weekend!

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