Midday Nowcast: Dry Today, a Few Showers Tomorrow; Tropics Remain Active

Today is another dry day, but moisture levels are on the rise, and we will mention a chance of showers over the southern half of the state, and perhaps these showers start moving north tonight. Scattered showers are possible statewide tomorrow; no wash-out, but some rain is possible at times, but even these showers should be few and far between across the state. Highs will be mostly in the low 80s on these two days.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: Just a small risk of a shower during the first quarter, but most stadiums will be dry and pleasant for the high school games tomorrow night; temperatures will fall through the 70s.

BIRMINGHAM ALMANAC: For October 3rd, the average high for Birmingham is 81° and the average low is 59°. The record high is 101° set in 2019, while the record low is 35° set in 1974 We average 0.12” of precipitation on this date, and the record value is 6.94” set in 1995 (Hurricane Opal related).

ACROSS THE USA: Increasing dangerous surf, strong winds and heavy precipitation will affect southern portions of Alaska and Aleutian over the next few days. A strong system will move ashore across the Pacific Northwest with winds and increasing fire weather concerns for the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Extreme heat lingers for the Southwest and parts of California. Closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND: Expect a partly to mostly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low 80s. A front will move through the state early next week, likely in dry fashion, but will bring that first true taste of fall next week. The weather will be dry and cooler with highs dropping into the upper 70s along with lows in the 50s with some upper 40s expected, especially in those colder spots.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Saturday UAB will host Tulane at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (12:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Auburn will be on the road at Georgia (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures in the low 80s through most of the game.

Alabama travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt (3:15p CT kickoff)… expect a sunny sky with temperatures falling from near 85 degrees at kickoff, to near 80 by the final whistle.

LEFT TURNS ONLY: Just an outside risk of a shower tomorrow at Talladega, otherwise warm and dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.

IN THE TROPICS: Kirk is a major hurricane in the eastern Atlantic. The center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 45.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

Leslie: The center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 5 mph.A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

In the Gulf, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system’s potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week. Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Next name up is Milton.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 112.3F at Ejido Nuevo León, Mexico. The lowest observation was -94.9F at Dome A, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 114F at Glamis, CA. The lowest observation was 17F at White Sulphur Springs, MT.

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