Tropics Update: Will We See Action in the Gulf Soon?

The area that we have been watching in the Gulf over the last few days has yet to make any indication that it will turn into an organized tropical system. Models are continuing to disagree on what exactly could happen over the next week in the Gulf.

The NHC still has this area listed as having a 40% chance of formation over the next seven days. Their messaging with this system essentially has remained the same today and yesterday: a tropical depression might form by the weekend, but there is not a clear indication this will occur . Here is the area highlighted by the NHC:

The 12Z GFS run shows an area of low pressure stalling over the Gulf for most of the beginning of next week, but does not show this area to be associated with a tropical system of any sorts. The EURO model shows a similar scenario, but it also shows this system being associated with a lot of rain and storms. Current environmental conditions would support a tropical system, so it really comes down to whether or not this area of low pressure can actually develop itself into a tropical depression. If so, then we could see a tropical system move into the Gulf.

Regardless of what ends up happening, we can say that we are expecting some heavy rainfall in Southern Florida next week, so be prepared for potential flash flooding that might occur. We will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if we see anything of concern.

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