A Look at the Tropics: New Tropical Depression in Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic; Kirk Strengthening; Still Monitoring the Gulf

Time for a look at the tropics this Wednesday late morning!  We have the latest from the NHC on a new Tropical Depression and on Kirk, and will look at the latest information we have from the models on what may or may not be brewing in the Gulf.  It remains complicated.

Hurricane Kirk:  This system is still strengthening and is projected to become a major hurricane on Thursday. The center is about 1225 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Max winds at the center of 85 mph, moving NW at 12 mph.  There are no advisories out for this hurricane since it is in the middle of the Atlantic. The main hazard are swells that could spread toward the Leeward Islands and possibly Bermuda.  Hazardous surf and a rip current risk by this weekend in those areas.

Tropical Depression 13:  This newly formed TD is about 430 miles SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Moving west at 7 mph with max winds of 35 mph.  Gradual strengthening is projected and could become a tropical storm by tonight.  The name would be Leslie. It could strengthen to hurricane status.  No threats to land at this time.

What about the Gulf?  It continues to be a struggle with the models to come to a consensus on what is happening in the Gulf.  There is a broad trough of low pressure with some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean/southern Gulf area.  If this area moves more into the Gulf, conditions would support some development.  The NHC holding on to a 40% chance of that development through 7 days.

This is the 06Z run of the GFS valid Sunday morning.  Possible low in the middle of the Gulf.  Tropical moisture hovering along the gulf coast from Texas to Florida.

As of right now, it does not appear we will have a major system in the Gulf.  Regardless, there will be the flux of tropical moisture coming into to Florida with chances for soaking rains.  We will continue to monitor the trends and updates from the NHC through the rest of this week and the weekend.

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