Mid-Afternoon Check-In on the Tropics

The area in the Gulf of Mexico that we have been monitoring over the last couple of days is still very broad, and is quite disorganized. Here is a map from the NHC highlighting this area, along with another area of interest in the Eastern Atlantic:

The NHC notes that this area will see a 0% chance of tropical system formation over the next two days, and a 40% chance over the next seven days. We could see a tropical depression form this weekend, but model data still cannot pinpoint any specifics just yet. The 12Z GFS run shows a decently organized area of low pressure moving into the middle of the Gulf mid-week next week, before stalling out and eventually weakening. Meanwhile, the 12Z EURO run shows a very disorganized low pressure system in the Southern Gulf next Wednesday. At the moment, it appears that we may see a very weak tropical system develop in the Gulf, but whether or not the system will be able to sustain itself after the formation is still up in the air.

12Z run of the GFS 

12Z run of the EURO

The other area noted by the NHC, in the Eastern Atlantic, has a very high chance of formation. It will likely develop into a tropical depression over the next 24 hours. This storm is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic, and will pose no risk to the Continental US over the next week.

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