Sunday Weather Briefing Video: Another Hurricane Coming to the Gulf?

As we look back on the devastation left behind by Hurricane Helene, our hearts go out to the millions across the Southeast who are still grappling with the aftermath. Many have lost loved ones, homes, and businesses, and the road to recovery will be long and challenging. Our thoughts are with all those affected, and we are committed to supporting the ongoing relief efforts in every way we can.

HELENE’S HORRIBLE LEGACY: Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Florida’s Big Bend area late Thursday night, unleashing its fury with devastating winds and torrential rain. The storm has claimed at least 54 lives as I write this across five states, with South Carolina and Florida suffering the most fatalities. In Georgia, eastern communities like Valdosta and Augusta saw widespread destruction reminiscent of a war zone, while in North Carolina, the city of Asheville and surrounding areas were inundated by record-breaking river flooding and landslides, cutting off access to entire regions. The historic and charming town of Chimney Rock, North Carolina was literally wiped off the map. The Nolichucky Dam in eastern Tennessee faced a near-catastrophic failure, while hospitals and emergency services struggled to operate amid power outages and washed-out roads. In Florida’s Big Bend region, towns like Perry, Horseshoe Beach, Keaton Beach Cedar Key, and Steinhatchee were battered by 15 feet or more of storm surge and relentless winds, leaving residents without power for the third time in just over a year. Across the Southeast, more than 800,000 are still without electricity, and officials warn that full recovery could take weeks, if not longer.

GOODBYE BUT NOT GONE: The NHC issued the final advisory on the Helene late Saturday morning, but the remnant low will be hanging around Tennessee and Kentucky through Monday. But rainfall totals will be a mere shadow of the ones created last week.

TROUBLE TROUBLE AGAIN THIS WEEK: The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a developing disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea that could pose a significant threat to the northern Gulf Coast by next weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean in the next couple of days, with environmental conditions becoming increasingly favorable for gradual development. There is currently a 50% chance of formation over the next seven days, and a tropical depression is expected to develop by midweek. The system is forecast to move northwestward, potentially reaching the Gulf of Mexico by the latter part of next week. All interests from the northwestern Caribbean to the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress closely.

Model guidance, particularly the GFS, has been very accurate with previous storms like Helene, and we are placing significant weight on its current projections. According to the latest runs, a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Caribbean on Monday, moving north-northwest off the coast of Nicaragua by Tuesday, likely becoming a tropical storm by then. By Wednesday, the system is expected to be about 300 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, possibly intensifying into a hurricane with winds around 75 mph. By Thursday morning, the storm could be nearing Cancun and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula as an 85-90 mph hurricane. Oceanic heat content in the western Caribbean remains extremely high, suggesting the potential for even stronger intensification than current models indicate.

If the storm crosses part of the Yucatan Peninsula, it may weaken slightly, but it is expected to re-strengthen as it moves into the southern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. Conditions in the Gulf, while not as favorable as in the western Caribbean, still feature warm sea surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content. By Friday night, the storm could be a 100 mph hurricane approximately 450 miles southwest of Fort Walton Beach, FL, beginning a potential turn toward the northeast. If the GFS is accurate, we could be tracking a landfall along the Northwest Florida coast by Sunday afternoon with maximum winds around 100-110 mph. Although it is too early to make specific predictions about track and intensity, this is a storm to watch closely from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend, including the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Of course, the eventual track could have a big impact on Alabama’s weather and our forecast. Stay tuned all week for updates as the situation evolves.

SUNDAY – MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS: Today, a low-pressure system to our north will continue to influence our weather, bringing a mix of clouds and sunshine across the area. Northern counties, especially along and north of I-20, may experience some wraparound moisture, leading to patchy clouds and possibly a few sprinkles or light drizzle throughout the day. Temperatures will vary significantly, with highs only reaching the low to mid-70s in the cloudier northern areas, while sunnier conditions farther south will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid-80s. Winds will be light from the west at 5-10 mph.

MONDAY- A BIT MORE SUNSHINE: Monday will bring a gradual improvement in weather conditions as the low-pressure system moves away, allowing for more sunshine to break through, especially during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm up nicely, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the Tennessee Valley to the middle and upper 80s across South Central Alabama. Winds will be light and variable, providing a pleasant start to the workweek.

TUESDAY TO THURSDAY – WARMING TREND CONTINUES: Expect mostly sunny skies from Tuesday through Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the region. Highs will be in the low to mid-80s across the area, with a few spots along the coast potentially reaching 90 degrees on Tuesday. A weak, dry front may pass through on Wednesday, but it will have little impact on our weather aside from slightly lower humidity. By Thursday, we’ll be keeping a close watch on a potential tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that could affect our weather later in the week.

FRIDAY – INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS: Friday will start off dry, but clouds will increase throughout the day as the western edge of the upper ridge erodes, setting the stage for moisture to move in from the south. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop across South Alabama and may spread into Central Alabama by the evening and overnight hours. Highs will be in the lower 80s with a noticeable increase in humidity.

SATURDAY – PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE; Saturday looks unsettled as a precursor rain event ahead of the approaching tropical system could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to Alabama. Rainfall amounts may not be heavy or widespread, but scattered storms will keep skies mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the upper 70s in the north and lower 80s in Central Alabama, with breezy conditions developing as the tropical system nears.

SUNDAY: DRY FRONT MOVES IN: By Sunday, the passing tropical system will help usher in a dry front, clearing out any remaining showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region, bringing a pleasant end to the weekend. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s across North Alabama and lower 80s in Central Alabama, with decreasing humidity and more sunshine in the afternoon. Stay tuned for updates as we monitor the progress of the tropical system in the Gulf.

VOODOO TERRITORY: The week two period will dominated by the fine weather that makes October many Alabamians’ favorite month of the year weather wise. Could I interest you in highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s? I thought so.

BEACHCAST: A beautiful day is expected along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, but a moderate rip current risk is in effect, with surf heights around 2 feet. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s under sunny skies, with west winds around 10-15 mph, making it a great day to enjoy the beach. By Monday, the rip current risk decreases to low, with calm surf conditions around 1 foot and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid-80s with light southwest winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature continued pleasant beach weather, with low rip current risks and surf heights around 1 foot. Expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s each day, with light northeast winds on Tuesday and a slight increase in winds to around 10 mph on Wednesday. It’s a perfect start to the week, but keep an eye on the forecast as we monitor a potential tropical system in the western Caribbean that could impact the Gulf later in the week. For now, enjoy the sun and surf safely, and stay tuned for any updates.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

REST OF THE TROPICS: In the Atlantic, both Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce are on the decline as they move further into the open ocean. Hurricane Isaac, located about 625 miles west-northwest of the Azores, is weakening with sustained winds down to 80 mph. The storm is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday as it moves into cooler waters and encounters increasing shear. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Joyce, situated around 1030 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, is struggling against strong southwesterly shear and dry air. Joyce, with winds of 45 mph, is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression by Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday before dissipating midweek. Neither system poses a direct threat to land at this time, but dangerous surf and rip currents are expected in the Azores due to Isaac.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: If you were standing on a corner in Winslow, Arizona on Saturday afternoon, you were baking. The afternoon high was 98F yesterday, smashing the previous record for the date of 94F set in 2003.

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WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain You Tube Meteorologist Mitch West. Mitch is a fresh, new fan favorite with his long form morning forecast discussions that have become daily must watches for his 85,000 subscribers. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1896: A powerful hurricane struck the Cedar Keys, a group of islands off Florida’s Big Bend, forever altering the course of this once-thriving seaport. Known for shipping cotton, sugar, tobacco, and lumber down the Suwannee River into the Gulf, Cedar Key was home to the Eberhard Faber and Eagle Pencil mills, vital to the local economy. The hurricane’s 10-foot storm surge and ferocious winds devastated the town, destroying the mills and leaving Atsena Otie Key uninhabitable. Headlines declared, “Cedar Key Crushed” and “Town Almost Wiped Out,” as the community grappled with staggering economic losses. The mills were never rebuilt, and the timber industry, already in decline, collapsed. This disaster marked the end of Cedar Key’s prominence as a commercial hub, leading to its transformation into a quiet resort and artist colony. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

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