Helene Now A Hurricane And Growing Stronger

RADAR CHECK: Rain and storms are most active across East and Southeast Alabama this afternoon. The rain is heavy in spots; a flash flood warning has been issued for parts of Chambers, Lee and Dale counties. In addition to heavy rain, stronger storms across East and Southeast Alabama are capable of producing strong gusty winds and small hail through the evening hours.

The chance of rain will continue through tomorrow statewide. The rain becomes heavy tomorrow night over the eastern half of the state as Helene moves inland; a flash flood watch is in effect for much of Central and East Alabama.

Winds increase tomorrow night over East Alabama… gusts to 30/35 mph are possible, with gusts to 40/45 mph possible from Eufaula down to Dothan.

The big rain mass will move out early in the day Friday, and we expect only a few isolated showers Friday afternoon/Friday night mainly over the Tennessee Valley.

The weekend will be mostly dry, with only a small risk of a shower both days over the northern half of the state. Highs will be in the 77-82 degree range. Much of next week looks dry as well.

HELENE: Helene is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph… The center is about 110 miles north/northeast of Cozumel.

The hurricane is moving to the north/northwest at 10 mph.

From NHC: Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should foster additional strengthening.

Rapid Intensification (RI) indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a major hurricane by tomorrow morning. There is still some uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast.

Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Landfall will likely make landfall tomorrow evening on the Florida coast south of Tallahassee, and east of Apalachicola; Helene is expected to be a major hurricane (category three) with winds of 125 mph at that time. There has been very little change in the track forecast over the past 48 hours. Also, there has been very little change in the expected impact for inland areas. ?

Key messages…

*A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Anclote River to Mexico Beach.

*A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

*The Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) is expected to be on the good, west side of the circulation with an offshore flow. The hurricane warning includes Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, and points east. The main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be from east of Indian Pass to Cedar Key and down to Tampa Bay (the east side of the circulation).

*A 12-18 foot storm surge is forecast from the Ochlockonee River down to Chassahowitzka on the Florida Coast. The storm surge around Tampa Bay is forecast to be 5-8′

*The eastern-most part of Alabama could see wind gusts to 40/45 mph tomorrow night; a tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of East and Southeast Alabama, including places like Centre, Heflin, Roanoke, Lafayette, Opelika, Eufaula, Troy, Ozark, and Dothan. Tropical storm force winds begin at 39 mph.

Gusts over the western half of the state will be in the 20-25 mph range. Highest wind velocities will be east of Alabama over North Florida and Georgia, where numerous power outages are likely.

*The eastern half of Alabama has potential for 3-5 inches of rain through Friday morning; rain potential for the western counties is 1-2 inches. Areas in West and Southwest Alabama from Tuscaloosa to Mobile are expected now to receive under one inch. A flash flood watch is in effect for roughly the eastern half of Alabama.

*Tornadoes are not expected in Alabama. Any isolated tornadoes will be along the east of the center of circulation as Helene moves northward (east of Alabama).

*The weather will improve across Alabama by mid-morning Friday; we expect just a few isolated, light showers Friday night and Saturday over the northern third of the state. Bottom line is that the weather won’t be bad at all for high school and college games in the state; just a small risk of a shower for any one given stadium. Wind will be under 10 mph.

Remember, any tropical forecast can change. Watch for updates!

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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