10pm Tropical Storm Helene Update

Location & Movement
Helene is located near 19.9°N, 85.5°W, about 100 miles ESE of Cozumel, Mexico, and 145 miles SSW of the western tip of Cuba. The storm is moving WNW at 10 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. Minimum central pressure is 991 mb.

Forecast
Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly over the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane overnight or early Wednesday. It will likely become a major hurricane by Thursday, as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida’s Big Bend coast late Thursday.

Watches & Warnings
– Hurricane Warnings: Anclote River to Mexico Beach (Florida), Cabo Catoche to Tulum (Mexico, including Cozumel).
– Storm Surge Warnings: Indian Pass to Flamingo (FL), Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor.
– Tropical Storm Warnings: Lower & Middle Florida Keys, west of Channel 5 Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, and parts of Mexico and Cuba.
– Hurricane Watch: Pinar del Rio (Cuba), Tampa Bay area (FL).

Hazards

– Rainfall: Heavy rain of 4-8 inches (with isolated 12 inches) is expected over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding are likely, and landslides are possible in the Appalachians.

– Storm Surge: Dangerous storm surge up to 10-15 feet in parts of Florida, especially from Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka. Other areas may see surges from 3-10 feet depending on location.

– Winds: Hurricane conditions are expected in Mexico on Wednesday and in Florida by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions will begin Wednesday across parts of Florida.

– Tornadoes: Tornadoes may develop Wednesday night over parts of Florida and southern Alabama, with an increasing threat Thursday extending into Georgia and South Carolina.

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