Friday Afternoon Tropics Update: Watching and Waiting

Happy Friday Everyone!  Just a quick tropics update with a focus on that area in the NW Caribbean/Southern Gulf.  This is where the various models are still showing low pressure forming sometime early/mid next week.  We don’t have a low right now.  We are still maybe 5 days or so away from something developing.  The National Hurricane Center has upped the chance for formation through 7 days to 50%.  Once something does form, some development is possible.

Most model guidance still show something developing but still differ on several aspects including where exactly it will form, how fast it will move, how strong it could be, etc.  Until we actually see a low form, there is just so much uncertainty and it is truly a waiting game.  We will watch the models and see if they are persistent with something developing and see if they start to come into alignment.

Snapshot of Euro Ensemble guidance as of Friday Morning, Sept 27.

Snapshot of GFS Ensembles at the same time

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