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Tropics Update: Watching Two Areas for Development

| September 18, 2024 @ 10:30 am

Keeping our eyes on two areas for possible tropical development over the next 7 days.  A lot of uncertainties but bears watching especially by the middle parts of next week.

  1.  The first area over the Central Subtropical Atlantic is actually the remnants of what used to be Gordon. There is a 60% chance that low could re-form in a few days as it interacts with a non-tropical low.  It is moving northward and poses no weather headaches.
  2. The other area is of way more interest as it is a closer to the US.  The models are projecting that a low pressure could form in this area highlighted in yellow late in the weekend or early next week. Some slow development is then a possibility.  The NHC has a low end chance right now of development over 7 days.  That probability will more than likely increase in the coming days.  This is the area we typically monitor closely for tropical development during this time of the season.  We will just need to wait and see how things unfold here.  A lot of uncertainty on if something can form and if it does, where will it go?  Here is the GEFS run from 6Z of its projection of where a low may be a week from now.  Not a forecast.  This is a model.

 

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