Sunday Morning Update on the Tropics: System Trying to Get Its Act Together Off Coast of Carolinas; Gordon Still With Us

Tropical Storm Gordon is currently located approximately 1,155 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. The storm has been battling strong westerly wind shear, which has displaced its center from the main area of convection. As a result, Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight. Over the next few days, the system will slow down as it moves west-southwestward, eventually turning northward by midweek as a ridge to its northwest weakens. While Gordon could weaken into a remnant low, there remains a possibility it could be with us for a while as a depression.

Invest 95L, a non-tropical low-pressure area located a few hundred miles off the Southeastern U.S. coast, continues to show potential for development into a tropical or subtropical system. Convection is increasing this morning, and there are consistent signals from the models that the low will continue to strengthen today and tonight. The disturbance is currently producing gale-force winds and could become better organized over the next 48 hours as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. With a 50% chance of formation in the short-term, this system could bring heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous beach conditions to parts of the Carolinas early next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas should remain vigilant as the system moves toward the region.

Looking ahead, there is also the potential for tropical development in the Western Caribbean during the week of September 23. Long-range models are hinting at an increase in atmospheric conditions favorable for development. Each model run of the GFS has produced a different solution recently, from nothing to a tropical storm moving across Cuba and the Bahamas to a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. While details remain uncertain, this area will be closely monitored as the environment is expected to become more conducive to tropical activity later in the month.

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