Tornado Threat Continues Through This Afternoon….

The risk of isolated tornadoes continues across parts of the Florida Panhandle, far SW GA and into southern Alabama.  The SPC discussion expects this threat to expand further north as the afternoon goes on.  Detailed discussion on that will be posted after this one on that threat for Alabama.

SPC  DISCUSSION…Several supercells have moved onshore across parts of
the FL Panhandle this morning, before tending to weaken as they move
farther inland with time. Some weakening of low-level flow has been
noted from the KEVX VWP, and this trend will continue from south to
north through the day, as Tropical Depression Francine continues to
move north-northeastward and weaken. However, low-level shear/SRH
remains favorable for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and
the thermodynamic environment may become more favorable with time,
as richer low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 70s F)
continues to gradually spread northward.

Farther northwest, a pronounced midlevel dry slot is moving over
south/central AL. This may allow for some diurnal heating across the
region, though it also will tend to suppress deeper convection to
some extent. Even if convection remains relatively shallow, a
favorable overlap of modest buoyancy (with MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) and
rather strong low-level shear/SRH attendant to Francine may support
a threat of a couple tornadoes into this afternoon, with some
northward expansion of the threat possible with time.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather