Francine Impacts: A City by City Look

Here is a look at the forecast for five cities in the warning area tonight…showing a most like case and a worst case scenario…as a caveat, if the storm undergoes rapid intensification and is much stronger, the forecasts will have to be updated.

MORGAN CITY, LA
WATCH/WARNING: Morgan City is under a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch.
MOST LIKELY AND WORST CASE: Tropical storm-force winds are expected to start at 11 AM CDT Wednesday and continue until 12 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 3 PM to 8:30 PM CDT, with hurricane-force winds from 5 PM to 6:30 PM. The strongest winds will peak at 5 PM CDT with sustained winds reaching 89 mph and gusts up to 107 mph.
BETTER CASE: In this scenario, tropical storm-force winds will begin at 10 AM CDT Wednesday and last until 9 PM CDT. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 3 PM to 5:30 PM CDT, with hurricane-force winds between 4 PM and 5:30 PM. The peak winds will occur at 4:30 PM CDT, with sustained winds reaching 59 mph and gusts up to 72 mph. The storm surge and rainfall forecasts remain the same, with minor residential wind damage, unsecured objects blown about, and power outages expected.
RAIN, SURGE, DAMAGE: There is a 63% chance of a 2-foot storm surge, and rainfall is forecast to total 6.7 inches. Considerable roof damage, mobile homes destroyed, power outages, and impassable roads are likely.

BATON ROUGE, LA
WATCH/WARNING: Baton Rouge is under a Hurricane Warning.
MOST LIKELY AND WORST CASE: Tropical storm-force winds will begin at 3 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 2 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 7 PM CDT to 11 PM CDT, with no hurricane-force winds expected. The peak winds will occur at 9 PM CDT, with sustained winds reaching 67 mph and gusts up to 81 mph.
BETTER CASE: In this scenario, tropical storm-force winds will start at 2 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 11 PM CDT. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 5 PM to 9 PM CDT, with no hurricane-force winds. Peak winds will occur at 5:30 PM CDT, with sustained winds of 46 mph and gusts up to 56 mph.
RAIN, DAMAGE: Rainfall totals will be around 6.6 inches. Minor roof damage and power outages due to fallen trees and debris are likely.

NEW ORLEANS, LA
WATCH/WARNING: New Orleans is under a Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and Storm Surge Warning.
MOST LIKELY CASE: Tropical storm-force winds are expected to start at 3 PM CDT Wednesday and continue until 2 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur between 8 PM CDT and 2 AM CDT Thursday, with no hurricane-force winds expected. Peak winds will occur at 8 PM CDT with sustained winds of 55 mph and gusts up to 67 mph.
WORST CASE: In this scenario, tropical storm-force winds will begin at 1 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 2 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur between 6 PM CDT and 10 PM CDT, with the peak winds at 8 PM CDT reaching 66 mph sustained and gusts up to 80 mph. Storm surge and rainfall forecasts remain the same, with minor wind damage and power outages expected.
RAIN, SURGE, DAMAGE: 3-5 feet of surge is possible along western and northwestern shores of Lake Ponchartrain, from Frenier to Ruddock, to Madisonville, along with 6.1 inches of rainfall. Minor residential damage, power outages, and light debris are likely.

MANDEVILLE, LA (NORTHSHORE)
WATCH/WARNING: Mandeville is under a Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and Storm Surge Warning.
MOST LIKELY CASE: Tropical storm-force winds will begin at 3 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 3 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur between 7 PM and 12 AM CDT Thursday. Peak winds are expected around 9 PM CDT, with sustained winds at 56 mph and gusts up to 67 mph.
WORST CASE: In this scenario, tropical storm-force winds will start at 3 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 3 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 7 PM to 12 AM CDT, with the peak at 9 PM CDT reaching 68 mph sustained and gusts up to 82 mph. Rainfall totals remain at 6.7 inches, and significant wind damage with widespread power outages and debris on roads is expected.
SURGE AND RAIN: 1-3 feet of surge could impact areas normally impacted by southeasterly and southerly winds ahead of a hurricane, and rainfall is expected to total 6.7 inches over the next 5 days. Considerable roof damage, mobile homes damaged or destroyed, and power outages are likely.

JACKSON, MS
WATCH/WARNING: Tropical Storm Warning
MOST LIKELY CASE: Tropical storm-force winds will begin around 8 PM CDT Wednesday and continue until 8 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds are expected from 12 AM CDT to 4 AM CDT Thursday. Peak winds will occur around 2 AM CDT Thursday, with sustained winds reaching 50 mph and gusts up to 65 mph.
BETTER CASE: Tropical storm-force winds will start at 8 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 8 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds are not expected. Peak winds will occur at 1 AM CDT Thursday, with sustained winds reaching 42 mph and gusts up to 50 mph.
RAIN: Rainfall is expected to total 5.2 inches in the most likely case, with a little less in the better case.
DAMAGE: In scenario 1, expect moderate wind damage, fallen trees, and widespread power outages. In scenario 2, expect minor wind damage and scattered power outages.

BAY ST. LOUIS, MS
WATCH/WARNING: Bay St. Louis is under a Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and Storm Surge Warning.
MOST LIKELY CASE: Tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin at 4 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 3 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur from 7 PM to 12 AM CDT Thursday. Peak winds will occur at 10 PM CDT, with sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts up to 73 mph.
WORST CASE In this scenario, tropical storm-force winds will start at 3 PM CDT Wednesday and last until 3 AM CDT Thursday. Strong tropical storm-force winds will occur between 6 PM and 12 AM CDT, with the peak at 9 PM CDT reaching 65 mph sustained and gusts up to 80 mph.
RAINFALL/SURGE: There is a 60% chance of a 2-3 foot storm surge, and rainfall is forecast to total 6.3 inches.
DAMAGE: Significant wind damage, scattered power outages, and localized flooding are possible.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical