Notes at Nine: Model Guidance Clustered Around Vermillion Bay Landfall

There are two Hurricane Hunter plans in Francine now…one from the Air Force, and one from NOAA.

The AF plane found pressure around 994mb, the NOAA plane reported lower. Will be interesting to see the NHC take in the 10 pm advisor, which will be coming up.

Flight level winds were not super impressive but a little more organized in the northeast quadrant.

The early cycle model guidance from 0z shows pretty good clustering around Vermillion Bay. The Euro is a little further west with its ensemble. The GFS is on the Vermillion Bay idea.

I think the NHC is hedging track west a bit in deference of the Euro. But all these solutions are in the cone easily.

Some of the hurricane models have intensities at landfall in the 960s.

Mandatory evacuation orders are out now for southern Cameron Parish in Southwest Louisiana, and parts of Plaquemines and Jefferson parishes in southeastern Louisiana.

Watching a tornado risk for Alabama on Thursday. More on that later.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical