Tropical Storm Watch Issued for the Texas Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six remains disorganized tonight, but deep convection continues to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The system is gradually becoming better organized and is expected to become a tropical storm by Monday. The forecast is for it to become a hurricane late Tuesday night.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme southern Texas from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch is anticipated for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts by Monday, as the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase for midweek.

The latest guidance suggests that the system will move slowly to the northwest over the next 24 hours before turning to the northeast, heading toward the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline by Wednesday. Confidence in the exact track remains low since the system has yet to develop a well-defined center, but the NHC is forecasting a hurricane at landfall, likely along the Louisiana coast by Wednesday night.

FORECAST AND MODEL UPDATES
Several forecast models offer insight into the storm’s potential strength and path. The HWRF model predicts a 68-knot hurricane with a central pressure of 973 mb making landfall near Orange, Texas, around 7 p.m. CDT on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the HAFS-A model shows a stronger 80-knot hurricane with a central pressure of 970 mb making landfall near Pecan Island, Louisiana. The HAFS-B model is a bit weaker, forecasting a 60-knot system. The SHIPS model remains aggressive, suggesting a high probability of rapid intensification, while the 18z European ensembles have shifted eastward, showing a landfall further along the Louisiana coastline.

The NHC official forecast track is shifted a little further east tonight. The official track brings tropical storm force winds to the southwestern coast of Louisiana by noon on Wednesday. Strong tropical storm force winds will arrive on the coast between 3-4 p.m. Wednesday. Landfall will occur between 6-7 p.m. Wednesday evening.

HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS
The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Potential Tropical Cyclone Six has been completed, with a second flight currently en route. The data gathered so far confirms that the system still lacks a well-defined center but continues to organize. Five additional reconnaissance flights are scheduled for tomorrow to provide more information about the storm’s structure and intensity.

With Potential Tropical Cyclone Six likely to become a hurricane, all interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should be prepared for potential impacts starting Tuesday night.

OTHER ATLANTIC SYSTEMS
In addition to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, two systems in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles are being monitored:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92)
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days as this low-pressure area remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: 60 percent (medium)
* Formation chance through 7 days: 70 percent (high)

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
This broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to interact with a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Monday. Gradual development is possible later in the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0 percent (low)
* Formation chance through 7 days: 50 percent (medium)

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical