Sunday Morning Weather Briefing Video: All Eyes on Gulf of Mexico

Our first true cold front of the fall (meteorological fall at least), moved south across Alabama through the day and overnight Saturday and it extends from near Mobile to along the Alabama/Florida border this morning. Dewpoints in the 30s have spread into North Alabama, with very comfortable 40s across Central Alabama. A few spots in North Alabama are in the 40s early this morning, with 50s across the Tennessee Valley and North Central Alabama. The rest of the state is in the 60s.

SYNOPSIS
The upper pattern across North America is defined by a big trough across the northeastern United States with an upper ridge over the West. Lower pressures over Texas presage where a developing tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche will go this week. More about that in a minute. At the surface, our cold front is lying along the Gulf Coast this morning. A few interesting waves will move from east to west along the boundary today, and those waves will pull some higher dewpoint air back northward into South Central Alabama during the afternoon.

FOR YOUR SUNDAY
It should be a mostly sunny and warm day despite the unseasonably cool start. Temperatures will be about 4-5 degrees below normal with highs ranging between 80-81F over the the Tennessee Valley and 82-87F across Central Alabama. I am calling for 84F today at Birmingham. Those little waves along the boundary could pull some clouds and some light showers northward into South Central Alabama this afternoon, but they will be very spotty and light, if they occur at all. Lows tonight will be in the 50s over th e northern third of the state, with lower 60s over Central Alabama.

NEW WORK WEEK
By Monday, temperatures will begin to rise as ridging strengthens over our region, bringing mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Looking ahead to Tuesday, moisture from a potential tropical system impacting the western and northwestern Gulf Coast may drift northeast toward Central Alabama. Most of the area should stay dry, but a few showers could develop in the far southern areas. Highs will remain in the 80s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the south due to increased cloud cover.

EYES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
Invest 91-L, currently located over the Bay of Campeche, remains disorganized with scattered convection stretching into the western Gulf of Mexico. However, development is anticipated over the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center has designated this system Invest 91-L, and model guidance suggests it could strengthen into a tropical depression or storm by Monday or Tuesday as it moves northward. The system is expected to track toward the southwestern Gulf, with the possibility of landfall occurring between late Wednesday and early Thursday along the Louisiana coast.

Environmental conditions in the western Gulf of Mexico are generally favorable for development, with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear expected. However, the presence of dry air from an approaching cold front may slow rapid intensification. Depending on its track, Invest 91-L could strengthen into a tropical storm, and possibly even a hurricane if it stays over water longer. While confidence in the exact track and intensity remains uncertain, residents along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should closely monitor this system, with preparations for potential tropical storm or hurricane conditions.

Currently, the greatest impacts are likely to be felt along the Louisiana coast, with storm surge, heavy rain, and strong winds possible. The system could bring significant rainfall and localized flooding, especially for coastal areas. For Texas, the primary concerns are coastal flooding and rainfall, though wind impacts are expected to be less severe.

IMPACTS FOR ALABAMA AND THE SOUTH
On Wednesday, increased moisture will lead to higher chances of scattered showers across most of Central Alabama and parts of western North Alabama. Due to the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday will bring more scattered showers as the moisture gradually shifts northeast, though the heaviest rain should remain to our west and southwest. Highs will again be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Friday, scattered showers are still expected across Central Alabama, with heavier rainfall likely along the northern Gulf Coast and offshore. Highs will range from the lower to mid-80s.

PROSPECTICVE RAINFALL TOTALS
Rainfall totals by the end of next weekend could range from 1-3 inches across the state, with the highest amounts across Mobile and Baldwin Counties, with around 1-2 inches across Central Alabama.

BEACH FORECAST
Beach conditions along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast will feature cloudy skies with showers and a chance of thunderstorms today, with water temperatures in the lower 80s. Rip current risk is low today, but it will increase to moderate by Monday as surf heights rise to 2-3 feet. Monday will bring mostly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms likely, along with highs in the lower 80s and moderate rip current risks. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the risk will increase to high, with surf heights reaching 3-4 feet. Expect continued cloudy skies, scattered showers, and highs remaining in the lower 80s.

DANCING WITH THE STATS
110 degrees on Saturday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport was just one degree short of the record high for the date set in 1979, but more interestingly, it marked the 104th consecutive day of temperatures of 100 degrees or hotter. Every day with a reading above 100F further obliterates the previous record of 76 days set in 1993. And folks, the forecast highs for the next 12 days are all above 100 degrees there. The 116F reading there on Thursday tied for the hottest reading ever recorded in September.

NATIONAL NOTES
Rip current beach hazard risks are in effect along the beaches of Lake Erie in Ohio and New York near Cleveland and Buffalo. I don’t think I have ever seen that. Frost advisories are in effect this morning over the valleys of West Virginia, where temperatures as low as 34F may cause some frost this morning.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
On this date in 1900, Isaac Cline, head of the Weather Bureau in Galveston, Texas, grew increasingly concerned as he recognized signs of an approaching hurricane. Despite his warnings, the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington underestimated the storm, believing it was hundreds of miles away and not a direct threat to Galveston. By the morning of September 8, 1900, it was clear that the storm was heading directly for the low-lying city. Cline received a storm warning telegram at 10:30 a.m. and raised the storm flag, but it was too late for the city to prepare.

By 3:30 p.m., Cline sent his final message to Washington, reporting that the Gulf was rising and half of Galveston was already under water. As the afternoon wore on, winds reached hurricane force, and by 8 p.m., the barometer had plunged to 27.50 inches, with the anemometer destroyed by winds surpassing 100 mph. A storm surge between 8 and 15 feet engulfed the city, causing widespread destruction.

The hurricane made landfall as a Category 4 storm, bringing 145 mph winds and devastating Galveston. Over 3,500 homes were destroyed, and at least 6,000 people perished, making it the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

WEATHERBRAINS
This past week’s show was a great one with Josh Morgerman, the Hurricane Man, and our old friend Brett Adair. We talked about Josh’s exploits and about his Hurricane House in Biloxi, MS. Check out the show at weatherbrains.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical