A Mainly Dry Weekend Ahead, But Wet Weather Returns Midweek

We had a cold front push through the northern parts of the state on Friday, and it’s making its way down into south-central Central Alabama. Most of us will stay dry behind the front, but don’t be surprised if you see an isolated light shower or two. Ahead of the front, we’ll have a few scattered showers and storms, but otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies with dew points dropping, so it will be less humid. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the mid-80s.

As we move into Sunday, high pressure will be building to our north, keeping most of the shower and storm activity well to our south. There could be a stray shower in the extreme southeastern part of the area, but that’s a long shot. The rest of the state will be dry, with highs in the lower to mid-80s.

By Monday, we’ll start to heat things up again as ridging builds over our area. Expect mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, moisture from a potential tropical system affecting the western and northwestern Gulf Coast will begin moving northeast toward Central Alabama. While much of the area will remain dry, a few showers might pop up in the extreme southern parts. Highs will be in the 80s, with cooler temperatures in the south, where there could be more cloud cover.

On Wednesday, additional moisture will move in, increasing the chances of scattered showers across nearly all of Central Alabama and a bit into the western part of North Alabama. Highs will be cooler due to the cloud cover and showers, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Expect more scattered showers on Thursday as the moisture continues its slow northeastward trek. The heavier showers should stay to our west and southwest. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Friday, we’re still looking at a decent chance for scattered showers across Central Alabama. Heavier rainfall is likely along the northern Gulf Coast and offshore. Highs will range from the lower to mid-80s.

As for rainfall totals by Friday evening, they could vary from as little as 1/10th of an inch to as much as 6.50 inches along the Alabama Gulf Coast. These numbers will adjust as we get updates and refine our forecasts with higher-resolution models throughout the week.

Now, let’s check out the latest Tropical Weather Outlook as of Friday evening at 8:30 PM…

The first system we’re watching is over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is churning up disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. This wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it will start interacting with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form early to mid next week as it moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.

The second system is over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. An elongated trough of low pressure is producing broad shower and thunderstorm activity in this region. A more concentrated low pressure area might form over the next couple of days. Any development is expected to be slow as the system drifts through the early part of next week and then begins moving west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic later next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.

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