Confidence Has Decreased in Development of Wave Moving Toward Caribbean

Confidence in the development of the tropical wave currently located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has decreased, according to the latest model runs. The GFS has backed off entirely on the potential for development over the western Caribbean, showing nothing on both the overnight and morning runs. The European deterministic model is also showing no significant development, although some of its ensemble members still indicate the possibility of a system forming in the western Caribbean, with most members depicting a weak system moving into the Bay of Campeche. Only a small number of ensemble members suggest a stronger storm that could move into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, while development remains possible later this week, the overall confidence has dropped, but this situation could still change as we monitor the system closely.

The tropical wave remains disorganized, with convection stretched from southwest to northeast, hindered by west-southwesterly wind shear. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable for development once the disturbance reaches the central and western Caribbean between Wednesday and Friday. Should the system strengthen, its future track and intensity will likely depend on the environmental conditions in the western Caribbean, where hotter sea surface temperatures could fuel more substantial development. A weaker system might track westward toward Central America, while a stronger system could be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico, potentially impacting the U.S. Gulf Coast. Regardless, this disturbance needs to be watched closely, especially by those in the western Caribbean and Gulf regions.

Meanwhile, a disorganized low-pressure system near the upper Texas coast is producing significant convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, particularly south of Louisiana. Although this system is not currently well-organized, the environment in the western Gulf remains somewhat favorable for development. The low is expected to meander near the northwestern Gulf coast for the next few days before potentially being pulled northeastward into the southern and eastern United States later in the week. The primary threat from this system remains heavy rainfall, with 3 to 5 inches expected from Galveston to Houma, leading to localized flash flooding and street flooding in those areas.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical