Sunday Weather Briefing Video: Tropics Getting Interesting; Widely Scattered Storms Today

As we head into Labor Day weekend, Alabama’s weather will feature a mix of sun and storms, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across North and Central Alabama on Sunday and more activity south of I-20 by Monday. A cold front will push south, bringing drier and cooler air to the region by midweek, with dew points dropping into the 50s. The tropics are also becoming active, with a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles potentially developing into a tropical system that could impact the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. Beachgoers should be mindful of moderate to high rip current risks and high UV levels.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE FLAT RIDGE RULES THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
A large ridge over the western U.S. and a trough across southeastern Canada are leaving a flat ridge over the Southeastern United States, including Alabama. As the northeastern trough progresses eastward, a surface front will push into Alabama on Monday. However, before that, an earlier front will attempt to make its way through the Tennessee Valley on Sunday but is expected to stall and fail in its progress. By Monday night, the main front should push south of I-20, where it will stall. Looking ahead to the coming week, the ridge will expand across much of the U.S., including Alabama. A new trough will start to build over the eastern U.S. by next weekend, potentially setting up a significant weather pattern change. By Wednesday, the surface front should have moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

AUGUST CLIMATE NOTES: A WARMER AND DRIER MONTH THAN USUAL
August in Birmingham saw an average temperature of 82.16°F, which is 1.16°F above normal. The average high temperature was notably warm at 93.42°F, nearly three degrees above normal. In contrast, the average low temperature was 70.90°F, slightly below the normal by half a degree. The coolest reading for the month was 62°F, recorded on the 21st. Rainfall for the month was significantly below normal, totaling just 1.08 inches compared to the normal 4.35 inches—a deficit of 3.27 inches. The heaviest single-day rainfall was 0.54 inches on the 29th. There were six days with thunderstorms.

SUNDAY: ISOLATED STORMS AND SOME SUNSHINE
Sunday will bring scattered showers and storms across North and Central Alabama, though they will be less widespread than on Saturday. Expect isolated showers and storms to develop between noon and 2 p.m., continuing into the evening. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humidity will remain high, contributing to an uncomfortable feel despite the cloud cover.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: LABOR DAY FRONT SLIPS SOUTH
By Labor Day and Tuesday, the focus for showers and storms will shift south of I-20 as the front slowly advances southward. Northern Alabama will start to dry out, though southern areas may still see some showers and storms. Highs will continue in the upper 80s to low 90s with slightly lower humidity as the drier air starts to filter in behind the front.

MIDWEEK: DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
Wednesday and Thursday will feature drier air sweeping into North and North Central Alabama, with dew points dropping into the 50s. This will bring a refreshing change, and radar should remain quiet. Thursday could struggle to reach 80°F in the northern half of the state due to the cooler and drier air mass. Expect mostly sunny skies and pleasant conditions.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: MOISTURE RETURNS, WATCHING THE TROPICS
Moisture levels will begin to increase again by Friday, with isolated showers and storms making a return, particularly across southern Alabama. On Saturday, these showers and storms will become more widespread as we continue to monitor the tropics. The tropical wave currently moving through the Leeward Islands could become a tropical depression or storm by Monday or Tuesday. By Sunday, we could be under the influence of subsidence ahead of a potential tropical cyclone moving into the Gulf, which might keep us dry.

VOODOO TERRITORY: ALL EYES ON THE TROPICS
In week two, the weather in Alabama will largely depend on the path of any potential tropical cyclone. A path toward the central Gulf Coast could result in heavy rain and storms with some wind.

TROPICAL UPDATE: CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT TO WATCH CLOSELY
A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized, but development is possible as it moves into the central and western Caribbean by mid to late next week. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development as it progresses westward, with a potential tropical depression or storm forming by Wednesday or Thursday near Jamaica. By the weekend, the system could strengthen further in the western Caribbean, with its future path dependent on how strong it becomes. There is potential for the system to enter the Gulf of Mexico, and it’s something that will need to be closely watched, particularly for impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, a disorganized low-pressure system is lingering just offshore of the upper Texas coast, producing scattered showers and storms. Although significant development is not expected, the system could bring locally heavy rain and flooding to coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana over the next few days.

BEACH WEATHER: BE AWARE OF RIP CURRENTS, UV INDEX, AND SUNBURN RISK
For those heading to the beaches along the Gulf Coast, conditions will be variable this weekend. Water temperatures are warm, ranging in the mid-80s, but moderate to high rip current risks will persist through the weekend, especially on Sunday. UV Index levels will be high, so sun protection is a must. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day, with surf heights around 2-3 feet.

WEATHER HISTORY: HURRICANE ELENA’S ERRATIC PATH IN 1985</strong.: Erratic Hurricane Elena was confounding forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on this Sunday before Labor Day. After threatening the central Gulf Coast on Friday, it turned east, menacing the Tampa Bay area on Saturday with high winds, tides, and heavy rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 mb while about 75 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. Coastal winds were strongest over Dauphin Island, Alabama, with sustained winds of 105 mph and gusts to 135 mph. Other reports included 120 mph gusts at Gulfport, Mississippi, and 92 mph at Pensacola. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, with 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island. Over a million people evacuated from low-lying coastal areas, contributing to the fact that no deaths occurred in the landfall area. However, four deaths were reported, including those from falling trees and automobile accidents, and one resident died of a heart attack. Total damage estimates for Elena ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion. Follow my weather history tweets on X. I am @wxhistorian.

SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY

Weather can be unpredictable, catching us off guard with its sudden changes. From thunderstorms to tornadoes or flash floods, being ready beforehand can be a lifesaver. Alabama, with its varied climate, faces its share of severe weather. That’s why having a solid safety plan is so important for everyone. Check out our Severe Weather Safety Guide for valuable tips on how to stay safe when severe weather is on the horizon.

BEACH FORECAST

Please visit our Beach Forecast Center page to access the most up-to-date weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches spanning from Fort Morgan to Panama City. On this platform, you can choose the forecast specific to the region you intend to visit, ensuring you have accurate and relevant information for your plans.

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