Watching the Central Tropical Atlantic…
The main player in the tropics is a wave over the central parts of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. There is an area of showers and thunderstorms that have formed and the NHC at their 8am EDT update has increased the chance for formation through 7 days to 40 percent.
Conditions are conducive for slow development and we could have a tropical depression on our hands by early next week. The general movement is around 10-15 mph at this time.
Some of the latest ensembles do pick up this wave and show it moving toward the islands over the next week. The 00Z Euro is posted below. This is a model, not a forecast. What about the US? No consensus this far out on where this could go. We just have to remember that we are in the midst of peak season and everything is on the table. The next name on the tropics list is Francine. We will be watching this closely!
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