Ernesto Still Holding On; Anything Behind It?

We still have Ernesto and it has strengthened a bit as of the 11am AST advisory. Max winds are sustained at 90 mph.  Pressure is at 968 mb which is down 4 mb from the 5am advisory.  It is quickly moving tot he northeast at 28 mph. the center is 320 miles southeast of Halifax Nova Scotia.

The forecast track keeps the center of Ernesto south of Newfoundland BUT there is still large wind so there will be impacts.  The tropical-storm-force winds are extending out 220 miles from the center. The strongest storms are on the north side of the system so those will swipe Newfoundland.  Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions.

Track from Environment Canada.

Ernesto will be quickly moving into a more sheared and cooler environment and is expected to become extratropical within 24 hours.

Even though this system is well away from the east coast, still some swell are kicking up the surf and keep the rip current risk on the high side.

Anything else coming in this week?  Not at least for the next 7 days…..

We are entering peak hurricane season and the waters of the Atlantic and Gulf certainly warm enough for development….we just don’t have anything coming into that environment. Read a great discussion from Michael Lowery breaking down Ernesto and why the tropical quiet might be settling in.

Any disturbances are forming slightly further north across the eastern Atlantic and they are running into slightly cooler conditions and being impacted by the dusty Saharan air which is running above average.  Here is his full blog (which is good to bookmark).

Grateful for the quiet but we do NOT need to put our guard down at all.  Saw a stat from Mike’s Weather Page (a good source for tropical info) and he brought up that fact that in 2022, there were not tropical systems for 60 days…this included most of July and August and then Ian and Nicole formed. It is hurricane season, we always need to be on our toes and be weather ready!

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical