Latest Ernesto Update: Rain, Surge and Wind Increasing for Bermuda Through the Weekend

Jen Narramore | August 16, 2024 @ 10:25 am

Image from Tropical Tidbits.

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Good Friday morning! Here is the latest Ernesto update. We have a large hurricane on our hands that has been struggling with vertical wind shear and this has had an impact on the structure of the storm and the intensity. Here are the 11am AST stats:

LOCATION…29.5N 66.4W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES

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The max winds of 100 mph is the same as the last two updates from the NHC. From the discussion: Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous.

Ernesto is being influenced by a trough. Once that moves away, the forecast is for the storm to slow down a bit over the next day or so and then another trough will help pick it up and cause it to accelerate. The storm may struggle in vertical wind shear as well for the next few days and that is causing difficulty in the intensity forecast. Gradual weakening is now forecast over the next 48 hours BUT hurricane status remains as it approaches Bermuda.

This is a very large tropical system with tropical storm force winds extending out 275 miles. Swells will continue to cause it to be choppy along the east coast of the US and high surf and an elevated rip current threat continues though the weekend.

Regardless of the strength of Ernesto as it impacts Bermuda through the weekend, there will be prolonged winds and surge. Tremendous rain could lead to life-threatening flooding. 6-12 inches of rain, locally up to 15 inches still forecast for the island. Here is the 500 km radar from the Bermuda Weather Service as of 1120am AST.