Ernesto Enroute to Bermuda: Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge, and Flooding Threats Loom

Hurricane Ernesto is continuing its northward movement and is currently situated about 570 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. The storm has maintained its strength with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, and further intensification is expected over the next 24 hours. Bermuda remains under a Hurricane Warning, with the center of Ernesto expected to pass near or over the island by Saturday.

Current Position and Intensity:

– Location Approximately 570 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
– Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 mph
– Movement: North at 14 mph
– Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb

Hurricane Hunters Report:

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters plane investigating Ernesto this morning recorded a minimum pressure of 975 millibars at approximately 9:16 AM CDT. The aircraft also detected maximum flight-level winds of 87 knots shortly before this, which, when adjusted to the surface using a 90% factor, would support winds of around 90 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has kept Ernesto’s winds at 85 mph for this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance plane is currently en route from South Carolina to further investigate the storm.

Forecast Discussion:

Ernesto is forecast to continue its northward movement today, followed by a turn to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge toward a trough off the U.S. East Coast. The storm is expected to approach Bermuda by Saturday, potentially near or at major hurricane strength.

Dry air has been disrupting Ernesto’s ability to rapidly intensify, but the storm is still forecast to strengthen, possibly reaching 110 mph by Friday. The broad circulation and dry air entrainment may slow this intensification, but Ernesto is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it nears Bermuda.

Forecast for Bermuda:

On its current forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass just west of Bermuda

– Wind Criteria Exceeded: The highest winds now expected in Bermuda are 79 mph, with dangerous wind gusts up to 95 mph possible by Saturday morning.
– Wind Timeline:
– Friday, August 16th:
– 6 PM CDT: Easterly tropical storm force winds (39 mph) expected to begin.
– Saturday, August 17th:
– 1 AM CDT: Southeasterly storm force winds (58 mph) expected.
– 7 AM CDT: Southeasterly hurricane force winds (74 mph) expected.
– 10 AM CDT: Highest sustained winds, 79 mph from the South, with gusts up to 95 mph.
– Hurricane force winds could last 6 hours.

– Wind Damage: Significant roof damage to sturdy buildings is expected, with mobile homes likely to be severely damaged or destroyed. Widespread power and communication outages are also anticipated.

Eventual Impacts to Newfoundland:

It looks like Ernesto will race by Cape Race and St. John’s, Newfoundland next Monday night. It appears the center may be close to the coast, but the main wind impacts will be well to the east, perhaps sparing the land areas. They are used to rapidly moving system that are getting ready to transition from tropical to extratropical.

Hazards Affecting Land:

– Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda by Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
– Storm Surge: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda, with large and destructive waves accompanying the surge.
– Rainfall: Ernesto is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to Bermuda, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 12 inches. This could lead to considerable life-threatening flash flooding.
– Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto are currently affecting parts of the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today and the U.S. East Coast by tonight, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Mark Sudduth’s Updates:

Our friend Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com is en route to Bermuda to provide live coverage as Ernesto approaches the island. You can follow his real-time coverage and insights on his website, [HurricaneTrack.com](https://www.hurricanetrack.com/), as well as through his social media channels, particularly on Twitter (@hurricanetrack) and his YouTube channel where he often posts video updates and live streams from the field. Stay tuned to these platforms for the latest information as Ernesto approaches Bermuda.

Beyond Ernesto:

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, conditions remain relatively quiet for now. However, as we move toward the end of August, a more favorable environment for tropical development is expected to set in, particularly in the eastern Atlantic. This could lead to increased tropical activity as we head into September. Long-range models suggest a weather pattern that could potentially allow tropical systems to track farther west.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical