Notes on the Tropics…Tropical Storm Chris Forms…Beryl Smashing Records…96L Will Be Debby and Impact Windwards

BERYL
…10 p.m. forecast advisory is out…little change…perhaps a smidge more to the north in the later part of the forecast
…Located
…This could increase impacts to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Caymans. GFS brings storm right over Jamaica.
…Landfall around 930 a.m. CDT in the Grenadines or perhaps Grenada…close call. Top winds should be 130-135 mph.
…Beryl is expected to strengthen a little more to 140 mph tomorrow…but otherwise the intensification has levelled off.

IMPACTS FROM BERYL
…Grenada will have sustained winds to around 70 mph with gusts to 80. Possibly higher if they end up in eyewall. We will be watching station TGPY in the morning.
…St. Vincent will have winds to 60 mph with gusts to 65-70 mph. Winds will being around sunrise.
…Tobago expecting sustained to 50 mph, gusts to 60 mph for about 6 hours in the morning. TTCP is the station there.
…Barbados will have sustained 50 with gusts to 60 mph. Station is TBPB.
…Saint Lucia expecting sustained to 45 mph with gusts to 50 mph. TLPC is their airport.
…Trinidad will experience winds just below tropical storm force.
…So will Martinique…TFFF is their airport code. They have been experiencing gusts to 40 mph out of the NE since 1:30 p.m. along with rain and thunder.

AMAZING FACTS ABOUT BERYL
…Only second June hurricane to form east of the islands.
…Strongest Atlantic hurricane ever in June.
…It only took 42 hours to go from depression to major hurricane. Has happened 6 times in history. Always in September.

EVENTUAL TRACK FOR BERYL
…Deterministic modeling places it in the southwestern Gulf at the end of the week into the weekend.
…Most keep it south of the U.S. now.
…GFS ensembles focus on Brownsville/Matamoros area.
…Latest Euro ensembles we have are from 12z this morning…that mean does take it up into the Houston/Lake Charles areas.
…18z European deterministic only goes out to Thursday.
…Appears to be no threat to Alabama or Northwest Florida coast.

CHRIS
…Tropical Storm Chris has formed late tonight just off the Mexican coast. It will be inland in a few hours.
…Top winds are 40 mph.
…The system will dissipate quickly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

96L
…Convection is increasing tonight, but the system remains disorganized.
…Most intensity models keep it a tropical storm over the Caribbean, located in the western Caribbean south of Jamaica or Cuba by Friday and Saturday.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical