It’s Official: We Have Beryl

Some notes on the newly minted tropical storm:

…Forecast track is basically unchanged.

…Beryl’s track will be over:
…very warm sea surface temperatures
…Warm water that is very deep with the 26C isotherm deeper than 250m
…low wind shear
…high oceanic heat content…120-135 kj/cm2
These parameters are very concerning.

…Some of the models have Beryl much stronger than the official track and intensity forecast
…Indeed, beryl could be a major hurricane when it reaches the islands on Monday

…No watches or warnings are posted yet, but tropical storm watches and warnings will be required early tomorrow for parts of the Windward Islands.

…Hurricane Hunter flights will begin on Sunday.

…Eventual track: GFS weakens the system over the western Caribbean. A stronger system might survive some passage over Cuba.

Beryl is definitely one to watch.

Chris could be following in Beryl’s footsteps, but doesn’t look like it will amount to much.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather