Tropical Depression Two Forms; May Be A Hurricane Before it Reaches Windward Islands Monday

The tropical disturbance about 1225 miles east of Barbados in the Windward Islands have developed enough of a circulation to be designated tropical depression two.

The system is moving W at 17 mph.

It will move through a low shear and moderately moist environment and will become a tropical storm tonight, being named Beryl, and a hurricane by Sunday according to the official forecast.

The storm will be near the Windward Islands Monday, with tropical storm force winds reaching Barbados in the pre-dawn hours, and the islands of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique during the morning hours. Hurricane conditions will be likely for some of the Windward Islands Monday for a few hours. Top winds could be 90-105 mph then (category two intensity). Tropical storm conditions should end Monday afternoon.

The system will pass through the eastern Caribbean reaching peak intensity there, around 105 mph in about 96 hours. It should weaken as it approaches the western Caribbean, but it still could be a hurricane as it nears Jamaica Wednesday morning.

From there where is goes is up in the air.

The European ensembles by next Sunday have a heavy concentration through the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. It does have a couple of members up in the GUlf though, which means we will be sweating it.

The GFS ensembles are similar…

DOn’t look now, but there is another disturbance behind this one, and one moving toward the Yucatan ahead of TD 1,

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical