Tornado Threat May Be Increasing

Text from SPC Discussion:

Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected…southeast LA…southern MS/AL and far western FL
Panhandle

Concerning…Tornado Watch 3…

Valid 090557Z – 090730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY…The tornado risk will continue into the overnight hours
across the central Gulf Coast vicinity.

DISCUSSION…A surface warm front extends from south-central MS
southeast toward Mobile Bay as of 0545z. The narrow warm sector
south of the the warm front and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front will continue to spread east along the central Gulf Coast
through the overnight and early morning hours. A modified 03z RAOB
from LIX indicated even with upper 60s F surface dewpoints, some
surface inhibition is still present. Nevertheless, intense vertical
shear, evident in regional VWP data will remain favorable for
rotating storms within the moderately unstable warm sector.

Some increase in convection across the inland warm sector, as well
as just offshore has been noted over the past hour or so. If any of
these cells can become established at the surface, or via
interactions with the eastward-advancing line of convection, tornado
potential may increase over the next few hours, especially across
southern AL/western FL Panhandle. Otherwise, linear/bowing segments
north of the warm front may continue to pose a risk of strong gusts
and/or hail.

..Leitman.. 01/09/2024

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather