Early Afternoon Update on Monday Night Severe Weather: SPC Upgrades to Enhanced Risk for Southwest Alabama

It is a beautiful but cool day across North and Central Alabama as the first week of 2024 gets ready to draw to a close.

The low stratocumulus clouds over North Alabama have been gradually transitioning to stratocumulus as they become more cellular thanks to heating of the boundary layer. This has led to increasing sunshine, although the stratocumulus field over North Alabama is actually increasing due to colder air aloft which is allowing for the needed instability for them to form.

Overnight lows ranged from 33F at Greenville in Butler County to 46F at Gasque in Baldwin County. Gasque is on the Fort Morgan Peninsula west of Gulf Shores. Its relative warmth was due to its location between the warmer waters of Bon Secour Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Across Central Alabama, lows included 41 at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, 40F at Anniston and Calera, and 39F at Bessemer. In Haleyville it was 37F, and so was Albertville on top of Sand Mountain.

Interesting that the coldest location in the state was in South Central Alabama at Greenville. That is because the layer of clouds that held tough overnight over North and Central Alabama acted as a blanket, keeping temperatures warmer than in the clear areas to the south.

Here is a satellite loop over the past 8 hours or so…

Some high clouds are overspreading South Alabama in the fast flow of the southern branch of the jetstream, and that advance will continue this afternoon and tonight. Could make for some pretty sunsets in those areas later this afternoon.

Lows tonight will look like this:

Tomorrow will be an interesting day with a very strong upper trough over the western United States with its axis from Montana to New Mexico. A weakening surface low will be moving from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with a secondary low set to form over Missouri later in teh day. This low will rapidly intensify as it moves into Illinois by early Tuesday.

This will put AL the developing warm sector of the intensifying low and winds will be increasing during the day in response to the pressure gradient. Winds will go from around 8 mph in the morning to 20 mph by afternoon to 25 mph during the evening. Gusts of 25 mph will; be felt by mid-morning, and will reach 42-48 mph by evening. Yes, you read that right, 48 mph gusts outside of thunderstorms. This will of course bring down tree limbs and trees and will cause power outages on its own. Highs on Monday will only be in the lower and middle 50s.

Look for wind advisories to be issued by all our National Weather Service offices later today or early Monday morning.

But Monday evening, warmer air will move up into South Alabama. Temperatures will actually rise during the evening from Birmingham and Anniston southward, reaching 55F after midnight along I-20, and 60F or higher south of Montgomery. 60 degree dewpoints will move across extreme South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, setting the stage for severe weather.

This animation of dewpoints tells the story or where we might see severe weather Monday night:

The SPC has increased the risk levels for Monday night to enhanced across Southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as well as Southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

The highest threat will be south of a line from Jackson AL to Castleberry to Florala, but severe weather is possible as far north as Tuscaloosa – Clanton – Eufaula.

They warn that significant severe gusts and g QLCS tornadoes are possible. They have a hatched 10% region of tornado probabilities from Southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi, Southwest Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Rain will reach Mobile around 3 p.m. tomorrow and Tuscaloosa-Birmingham by 6-7 pm, with fairly widespread heavy showers and isolated thunder continue through the overnight.

The strongest storm should reach Southwest Alabama around 4-5 a.m. and progress eastward through the morning, finally exiting the state around 10 a.m.

Very strong winds aloft are going to raise the threat of significant damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or greater over Southwest Alabama in addition to the widespread strong gradient winds as well.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather